湖北省农业与旅游业融合发展研究

Research on the Integrated Development of Agriculture and Tourism in Hubei Province

农业与旅游业融合发展是促进乡村全面振兴的一种新的发展模式。以1999—2019年的农业总产值与国内、外旅游收入为样本,构建向量自回归模型,运用格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数及方差分解等方法,对湖北省农业和旅游业的融合发展进行实证研究。研究结果表明:湖北省农业总产值对国内旅游收入、旅游外汇收入具有单向因果关系;旅游业波动受农业波动影响较大;农业波动主要来源于自身波动的影响,与国内旅游和入境旅游波动没有显著关系。

The integrated development of agriculture and tourism is a new development model to promote the overall revitalization of the countryside.This study takes the agricultural output value and domestic and foreign tourism income from 1999 to 2019 as samples,and constructs a vector autoregressive model.Using Granger causality test,impulse response function and variance decomposition,the integrated development of agriculture and tourism in Hubei Province is empirically studied.The research results show that:the agricultural output value of Hubei Province has a one-way causal relationship with domestic tourism income and tourism foreign exchange income;tourism fluctuations are greatly affected by agricultural fluctuations;agricultural fluctuations are mainly from their own fluctuations,and have no significant relationship with domestic tourism and inbound tourism fluctuations.