未来气候条件下当归适生区预测及时空变化分析

Prediction of the Suitable Area of Angelica sinensis(Oliv.)Diels and Analysis on Spatiotemporal Changes under Future Climatic Conditions

目的 研究未来气候变化对当归适生区分布的影响及时空变化趋势,为当归生产规划提供参考。方法 利用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型和ArcGIS软件对当前(1970-2000年)和未来(2041-2060年、2061-2080年、2081-2100年)不同气候情景下(SSP126和SSP585)当归的适生区分布进行预测,利用质心位移法绘制适生区移动轨迹,分析当归适生区的时空演变趋势。结果 当前气候条件下当归总适生区面积约为148.13×10^(4) km^(2),海拔、年均降水量、最冷季度平均温度是影响当归分布的主要环境因子,其中海拔的影响最大,贡献率为49.1%。未来SSP126和SSP585气候情景下,当归总适生区面积先增加后减少,均在2050年达到最大值,高适生区和极高适生区受气候影响较大,新增适生区主要集中在青海东部的高海拔地区,适生区质心均向高纬度方向移动。SSP126情景下适生区面积在2081-2100年又有所增加。结论 未来气候条件下当归适生区向高纬度方向移动,温度升高可能是导致其适生区变化的重要因素,可进行相关生产规划。

Objective To explore the effects of climate change on the distribution of suitable areas of Angelica sinensis(Oliv.)Diels in the future and the temporal and spatial variation trends;To provide reference for the future production planning of Angelica sinensis(Oliv.)Diels.Methods MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software were used to predict the distribution of suitable areas of Angelica sinensis(Oliv.)Diels currently(1970-2000)and in the future(2041-2060,2061-2080,and 2081-2100)under different climate scenarios(SSP126 and SSP585).The centroid displacement method was used to plot the movement trajectory of suitable areas,and the temporal and spatial variation trends were analyzed.Results The total suitable area of Angelica sinensis(Oliv.)Diels under current climate conditions was about 148.13×104 km2.Altitude,annual precipitation and average temperature in the coldest season were the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of Angelica sinensis(Oliv.)Diels,of which altitude had the greatest impact,with a contribution rate of 49.1%.Under the future SSP126 and SSP585 climate scenarios,the total suitable area of Angelica sinensis(Oliv.)Diels will increase first and then decrease,reaching the maximum in 2050.The high and extremely high suitable areas are greatly affected by climate.The new fitness areas are mainly concentrated in the high altitude areas in the east of Qinghai.The centroid of the fitness areas moves towards the high latitude.Under the SSP126 scenario,the area of suitable living areas will increase again in 2081-2100.Conclusion Under future climate conditions,the suitable area of Angelica sinensis(Oliv.)Diels will move to higher latitude,and the temperature increase may be an important factor leading to the change of its suitable area,which are helpful for the future production planning.