广西甘蔗气候适宜度时空特征分析

Analysis on Spatial Change Characteristics of Climate Suitability of Sugarcane in Guangxi

基于广西91个国家气象站1970~2021年气象数据,构建甘蔗气候适宜度模型。结果表明:广西甘蔗全生育期温度适宜度>可利用降水适宜度>日照适宜度,96.7%站点温度适宜度呈显著上升趋势,分别有59.3%、18.7%、34.1%的站点日照、可利用降水和综合气候适宜度呈显著下降趋势;99%的区域综合气候适宜度变化趋势以降低-明显降低为主,明显降低主要位于桂东及桂中;温度、日照及综合气候适宜度总体自南向北逐渐减少,可利用降水适宜度呈中部高、东西部低。各生育期中,温度适宜度除工艺成熟期外均呈明显上升趋势;日照、综合气候适宜度在茎伸长期及可利用降水适宜度在分蘖期明显下降;温度、日照和综合气候适宜度在多数生育期大体呈南北纬向分布,可利用降水适宜度苗期自东北向西南逐渐减少,而茎伸长期自东北向西南逐渐升高。

In this paper,a sugarcane climate suitability model was established based on meteorological data of 91 national weather stations in Guangxi from 1970 to 2021.The results showed that the suitability order of the whole growth duration of sugarcane was temperature>available precipitation>sunshine;96.7%of stations showed a significant upward trend in temperature suitability,while 59.3%,18.7%,and 34.1%of stations showed a significant downward trend in the suitability of sunshine,available precipitation,and comprehensive climate,respectively.The trend of regional comprehensive climate suitability,which accounted for 99%,was mainly decreased-significantly decreased,and significantly decreased area mainly in eastern and central Guangxi.The suitability of temperature,sunshine and comprehensive climate gradually decreased from south to north overall,while the suitability of available precipitation was higher in the middle and lower in the east west.The temperature suitability during various growth durations showed a significant upward trend except for the technique maturation period;the suitability of sunshine and comprehensive climate in the growth duration of stem and the suitability of available precipitation in the tillering stage decreased significantly.In space,the suitability of temperature,sunlight and comprehensive climate were generally distributed in a north-south latitude direction during most growth stages;the seedling stage of the suitability of available precipitationgradually decreased from northeast to southwest, while the growth duration of stem gradually increased fromnortheast to southwest.