基于组合预测模型的陕西省物流需求预测

Forecasting and Analysis of Shaanxi Province's Logistics Demand Based on Combination Forecasting Model

物流行业作为第三产业,有着非常好的发展前景。提前预测某地区的物流需求水平对该地区物流行业的发展起着非常重要的作用。以陕西省为例,将灰色预测模型、二次指数平滑预测模型及线性回归预测模型组合起来,利用组合预测模型理论,根据陕西省2002—2021年实际数据建立模型,预测出陕西省未来十年的物流需求量,发现需求量呈现逐渐增长趋势,最高可达19.38亿吨。最后依据预测的结果及“十四五”规划,对陕西省物流发展提供一些建议。

As a tertiary industry,the logistics industry has a bright future.Predicting the logistics demand level of a region in advance plays a very important role in the development of the logistics industry in that region.Taking Shaanxi Province as an example,the grey model,quadratic exponential smoothing model and linear regression model are combined by the combined forecasting model theory.The model is established according to the actual data of Shaanxi Province from 2002 to 2021,and the logistics demand of Shaanxi Province in the next ten years is predicted.It is found that the demand shows a gradual growth trend,up to 19.38 billion tons.Finally,according to the forecast results and the"14th five-year"plan of Shaanxi Province,some suggestions are given.