处置阶段信息对高速公路交通事故持续时间的调节效应分析

Moderating effect analysis of information in the processing phase on expressway traffic accident duration

应急处置阶段对交通事故持续时间演化至关重要,在信息视角下研究处置阶段信息对高速公路交通事故持续时间的影响具有重要意义。为了研究处置阶段信息在持续时间演化过程中的作用机制,从词频、上报次数、字符数及波动情况方面,采用内容分析法定义了处置阶段信息的评价指标,基于显著性调节变量建立高速公路交通事故持续时间的调节效应模型。通过稳健性检验,验证了模型的有效性。研究表明:变量Z_(1)、Z_(2)、Z(4)、Z_(5)、Z_(6)、Z_(7)、Z_(8)、Z_(9)、Z_(10)分别对事故范围与持续时间的关系具有调节作用,调节变量在不同水平时影响幅度具有显著性差异。其中,Z_(8)、Z_(6)、Z_(7)的调节效应最强,依次为0.049、0.034、0.032。充分发挥处置阶段信息的调节作用,将有助于信息采集、发布和报送的有效性,进而辨识应急处置关键因素以促进处置效果。

Prevention,Broadvision Engineering Consultants;School of Electronics and Control,Chang'an University;Since emergency response is very important to the evolution of the duration in expressway traffic accidents,it is significant to study the influence of information on the duration in the processing phase.The moderating effect model of expressway accident duration was established with structured data and text data,given the indexes of the processing phase information as moderating variables.Taking the influencing factors as independent or control variables,and the duration as a dependent variable,the model was used to analyze the mechanism of processing phase information in duration evolution.Under the view of the word frequency,report times,and text capacity,the evaluation indexes were defined using a content analysis method,as ten potential moderating variables were proposed.The moderating effect was tested by the interactions with the independent variable and the moderating variable,and the type of moderating effect was discussed by simple slope analysis.The robustness test verified the validity by changing the control variables in the model.Under the confidence level of 0.01,it is shown that significant moderating variables have been obtained on the relationship between accident range and duration respectively,including Z_(1),Z_(2),Z_(4),Z_(5),Z_(6),Z_(7),Z_(8),Z_(9,)and Z_(10).In other words,the nine moderating variables have significant differences in the impact at different levels.After the moderating effect has been calculated,the value of Z_(8),Z_(6)and Z_(7) is 0.049,0.034,and 0.032 respectively.Considering the results of validity analysis and moderating effect intensity,Z_(1),Z_(2),Z_(5),Z_(7),Z_(8),and Z_(10)are six suggested variables for estimating the information in the processing phase.With the full help of the moderating effect,it is positive to enhance effectiveness on the stage of collection,publishing,and report,therefore improving the level of emergency response on site.