复杂性系统视角下船员不安全行为功能共振分析模型

A functional resonance analysis model of crew unsafe act in a complex systems perspective

为分析船员不安全行为的形成,提出了基于功能共振分析方法(Functional Resonance Analysis Method, FRAM)和集对分析的不安全行为分析模型。通过辨识船员不安全行为形成因素,构建13个不安全行为影响因素的功能共振分析模型;引入区间值犹豫模糊熵和集对分析方法量化功能模块变异程度与表型,确定功能链接的耦合变异系数;结合船舶事故案例数据,得出不安全行为形成过程中导致不安全行为形成的主要路径。结果表明:船员不安全的关键指标涉及性格、工作强度等;船员不安全行为受到内外部因子影响,涉及12条不安全行为形成路径;船员不安全行为主要表现为自身特质、管理、专业素质易产生变异从而影响其他功能模块;信息传达、判断决策、动作、动作后确认易受到其他功能模块的影响,尤其是判断决策、动作等行为表现易受到影响形成不安全行为。

To analyze the formation of crew unsafe acts,a model based on Functional Resonance Analysis Method(FRAM)and set pair analysis is proposed.By identifying the form factors of crew unsafe act,the functional resonance analysis model of 13 influencing factors of the unsafe act is constructed;The interval value hesitant fuzzy entropy is introduced to analyze the variation of functional modules;The Set Pair Analysis(SPA)method is used to determine the safety connection number and safety output effect coefficient of the functional module phenotypes;Based on the variation of functional modules and the phenotypic safety output effect coefficient in functional links,the coupling variation between functional modules is calculated to explore the causes of crew unsafe act;Combined with the data of ship accident cases,the main paths leading to the formation of unsafe acts are obtained.The application results show that the crew unsafe act is affected by internal and external factors,involving 12 unsafe act formation paths.From the perspective of key links,their characteristics are more likely to affect perception,information transmission,judgment and decision-making,and post-action confirmation;Management is more likely to affect the physical state,mental state,communication,and action;Professional quality easily affects past actions,perceptions,judgments,and decisions;Perception affects decision making;Among them,their characteristics and professional quality indirectly affect judgment and decision-making through perception;Information transmission,judgment decision-making,action,and post-action confirmation are easily affected by other functional modules,resulting in crew unsafe act;The unsafe act indicators such as personality,work intensity,organizational factors,supervision,negligence,and forgetfulness are identified by key phenotypes.