北京市绿色发展要素协同效应研究

Research on synergistic effects of green development elements in Beijing

为探究提升北京市绿色发展水平的路径,结合DPSIR模型和物质流分析法全面评价北京市绿色发展现状,构建包含经济、人口、资源、环境、科技和政策6要素的系统动力学模型。通过设计8种方案研究要素独立与协同作用下对绿色发展系统的影响。研究发现:1992—2019年北京市绿色发展水平总体向好;维持现有发展状态下,2020—2035年北京市绿色发展水平能够进一步提高;在各要素独立作用下,加强科技创新对北京市绿色发展水平的促进作用最大,降低人口规模的促进作用最小;6要素协同发展对北京市绿色发展水平的促进作用最显著,且能够产生“1+1>2”的协同效应。未来北京市要注重高素质人才培养,提高自主知识创新能力,以科技为核心推动要素协同发展,全面提升北京市绿色发展水平。

To find ways to improve the green development level of Beijing,the paper combines the DPSIR model and the material flow analysis to evaluate the status quo of green development in Beijing scientifically and comprehensively,and constructs a system dynamics model,composed of economy,population,resources,environment,technology,and policy elements.Eight schemes are set to study the impact of separate and coordinated development of different elements on the green development system quantitatively and to explore whether there is a synergistic effect of multi-element coordination.It was found that:(1)Green development level of Beijing was generally good from 1992 to 2019,with an average annual growth rate of 0.79%,especially after the“Eleventh Five-Year Plan”period;(2)Under the current state of development,from 2020 to 2035,the average annual growth rate of the green development level is 1.13%,and the green development level improves steadily;(3)In the case of independent development of elements,promoting economic development,reducing population size,reducing resource consumption,reducing environmental pollution,strengthening technological innovation and increasing government investment will make the average annual growth rate of the green development level of Beijing from 2020 to 2035 to be 1.14%,1.04%,1.17%,1.14%,1.39% and 1.13%,among which the promotion effects of strengthening technological innovation is the most significant,and reducing population size is the least significant;(4)In the case of coordinated development of elements,from 2020 to 2035,the average annual growth rate of green development level is 1.47%,and the coordinated development of six elements will promote the green development level of Beijing more than the independent development of elements will do;(5)From 2020 to 2035,the coordinated development of the six elements will produce a synergistic effects of“1+12”,which is 0.0854.In the future,Beijing should pay attention to the cultivation of high-quality talents,improve the ability of independent knowledge innovation,promote the coordinated development of elements with the core of science and technology as the core,and improve the green development level of Beijing comprehensively.