基于混合智能算法对销售量的预测研究

Research on Prediction of Sales Volume Based on Hybrid Intelligent Algorithm

随着平邑县水果罐头加工企业新产业园项目蓬勃发展,准确预测罐头的销售量对企业做出正确决策以达到预期的收益目标具有重要的现实意义。通过对平邑县蒙水罐头销售量的相关数据的搜集,运用牛顿插值公式与3/8辛普森方程对灰色预测模型中的紧邻矩阵进行改进,改变白化方程的系数,并结合BP神经网络修正误差,得到新型混合智能算法预测水果罐头的销售量。通过与实际销售数据比较分析得到该算法的均方根误差(RMSE)、平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)和平均绝对误差(MAE)分别为2.0、2.4%和1.3,与原有的混合智能算法相比精度更高,参考价值得到有效提升,能帮助生产企业更合理地安排生产。

With the booming development of the new industrial park project of fruit canning processing enterprises in Pingyi County,it is of great practical significance to accurately predict the sales volume of canned goods for enterprises to make correct decisions to achieve the expected revenue target.The new hybrid intelligent algorithm proposed in this paper uses Newton interpolation formula and 3/8 Simpson equation to improve the adjacency matrix in the grey prediction model,changes the coefficient of the whitening equation,and combines BP neural network to predict the sales volume of canned fruit.The algorithm is obtained by comparison with the actual sales data analysis of the root mean square error(RMSE),mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)and mean absolute error(MAE),which are 2.4%,2.0 and 1.3 respectively.The algorithm accuracy is higher compared with the original hybrid intelligent algorithm,effectively improving the reference value,and can help enterprises more reasonable arrange production.