人口年龄结构、消费结构与产业结构协调发展研究——基于系统耦合协调度模型测度

Research on the Coordinated Development of Population Age Structure,Consumption Structure,and Industrial Structure:Model Measurement Based on System Coupling Coordination Degree

文章采用我国30个省(自治区、直辖市)2005—2018年面板数据,运用三系统耦合模型,测算人口年龄结构、消费结构与产业结构三系统耦合协调度。测算结果显示:我国人口年龄结构-消费结构-产业结构三系统耦合协调度水平较低,但总体呈逐年上升态势。为进一步揭示三系统耦合协调度形成动因,通过考察人口年龄结构、消费结构、产业结构两两组合的两系统耦合协调对三系统耦合协调的影响,采用空间重心模型分析各两系统的空间匹配程度,发现由于消费结构-产业结构两系统的空间匹配程度增加,逐步凸显了消费结构-产业结构耦合协调对三系统耦合协调的支撑作用;而人口年龄结构-产业结构两系统空间配置效率的下降阻碍了其对三系统耦合协调支撑作用。厘清了三系统耦合协调度形成的动因,并为提高其耦合协调度水平提供了对策措施。

The article uses panel data of 30 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government)in China from 2005 to 2018,and uses the three-system coupling model to measure the three-system coupling coordination degree of population age structure,consumption structure,and industrial structure.The calculation results show that the three-system coupling coordination degree of China’s population age structure-consumption structure-industrial structure is low,but the overall trend is increasing year by year.In order to further reveal the cause of the three-system coupling coordination,this paper examines the influence of the two-system coupling coordination of the population age structure,consumption structure,and industrial structure on the coupling coordination of the three systems.The spatial center of gravity model is used to analyze the degree of spatial matching between the two systems,and it is found that the increase in the degree of spatial matching between the two-system of consumption structure-industrial structure gradually highlights the supporting role of the coupled coordination of consumption structure-industrial structure on the coupled coordination of the three-system.The decline in the efficiency of the spatial allocation of the two-system of population age structureindustrial structure has hindered the role in supporting the coupling and coordination of the three-system.This paper clarifies the causes of the formation of the coupled coordination of the three-system and provides countermeasures to improve its level of coupled coordination.