城镇化对洛阳市区域经济发展的影响研究

Study on the Impact of Urbanization on the Regional Economic Development of Luoyang City

城镇化水平与区域的经济发展密切相关。研究运用VAR模型对2005—2019年洛阳市城镇化与经济发展之间的动态关系进行实证研究,在此基础上利用OLS模型就洛阳市城镇化发展对其经济发展的影响做回归分析。实证结果表明,洛阳市城镇化发展与其经济发展具有单向的格兰杰因果关系;方差分析结果显示,洛阳市城镇化率对经济发展影响较大,而洛阳市经济发展除了受城镇化水平的影响,还存在其他贡献度更大的因素;回归分析结果显示,洛阳市城镇化水平的提高将会对人均生产总值的增加起到积极的促进作用,城镇化率每提高1%,人均生产总值将增加0.321786%。据此,提出差别化推进城镇化、着力打造宜居城市、关注农村人口转移等建议。

The level of urbanization is closely related to the economic development of the region.The study uses VAR model to empirically investigate the dynamic relationship between urbanization and economic development in Luoyang City from 2005 to 2019,based on which regression analysis is done on the impact of urbanization development on its economic development in Luoyang City using OLS model.The empirical results show that urbanization development in Luoyang City has a one-way Granger causality relationship with its economic development;the ANOVA results show that the urbanization rate of Luoyang City has a greater impact on its economic development,and there are other factors that contribute more to the economic development of Luoyang City than the urbanization level;the regression analysis results show that the improvement of urbanization level in Luoyang City will play a positive role in the increase of per capita GDP.As the urbanization rate increases 1%,per capita GDP will increase 0.321786%.Accordingly,we propose to promote urbanization in a differentiated manner,make efforts to build a livable city,and pay attention to the transfer of rural population.