长三角地区景观生态风险时空演变评估

Assessment on Spatial-temporal Evolution of Landscape Ecological Risk in the Yangtze River Delta

[目的]分析景观生态风险的发生机制,改善风险评估框架进而评估长三角地区各类景观生态风险,为长三角地区生态风险管控和生态文明建设提供参考。[方法]基于适应性循环理论“潜力-连通性-恢复力”三维视角构建生态受损概率指标体系,以生态系统服务为评价终点,从生态系统服务和生态受损概率两方面综合评估了长三角地区2000年、2010年、2020年景观生态风险,并判定研究区所处的风险适应性阶段。[结果](1)长三角地区生态系统服务指数总体表现为升高趋势,并呈现南高北低的空间格局;(2)生态受损概率呈现南低北高、西低东高的空间特征,时序变化特征为围绕城市建成区先扩展后收缩;(3)景观生态风险总体较低,中低风险区域占大比例,高风险区集中在城市建成区周围,部分快速发展城市的生态风险值逐渐升高;(4)从适应性循环阶段来看,长三角地区部分地区已开始从快速发展向稳定可持续发展转变,处于开发阶段的区域减少,处于释放阶段的区域增加。[结论]适应性循环理论能够阐明生态本底、景观格局和动态过程之间的关系及其对景观生态风险的作用机制,可以较好地融入生态风险预测框架,提高景观生态风险预测的有效性、准确性。

[Objective]This study aims to reveal the occurrence mechanism of landscape ecological risk(LER),improve the ecological risk assessment framework(ERAF)to evaluate various LERs in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)region,so as to provide a reference for ecological risk management and ecological civilization construction in the YRD region.[Methods]This study took ecosystem services as the evaluation endpoint and constructed a probability of ecological damage index system based on the three-dimensional perspective of‘potential-connectivity-resilience’of the adaptive cycle theory,and comprehensively assessed the LER of the YRD region in 2000,2010 and 2020 in terms of ecosystem services and probability of ecological damage.[Results](1)The overall ecosystem service capacity of the YRD region showed an increasing trend and a spatial pattern of high in the south and low in the north.(2)The probability of ecological damage showed a spatial characteristic of low in the south and high in the north,low in the west and high in the east,and the temporal change was characterized by expansion and then contraction around the built-up urban areas.(3)The LER of the YRD region was generally low,with a large proportion of medium and low-risk areas,and high-risk areas concentrated around the cities,and LER gradually increased in some rapidly developing cities.(4)From the adaptive cycle stage,some areas in the YRD region had started to change from fast development to stable and sustainable development,with fewer areas in the development stage and more areas in the release stage.[Conclusion]The adaptive cycle theory can clarify the relationship among ecological function,landscape pattern and dynamic process and its influence on LER.It can be integrated well into the ERAF and improve effectiveness and accuracy of LER accessment.