民族主义如何影响对外决策——论印度莫迪政府外交政策转变中的国民志愿服务团因素

How Nationalism Influences Foreign Policy Making:A Study on the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh Factors in Modi Government's Foreign Policy Redirection

以国民志愿服务团为代表的印度教民族主义组织正在建立和增强对印度政府的决策影响力,这是理解民族主义如何影响国家行为的典型案例之一。通过明确国民志愿服务团影响印度政府决策的动因和路径并引入权力地位衡量框架,可以解决相关因果机制确定难题,并据此将其影响莫迪领导的印度人民党政府对外经济决策的过程分为三个阶段:一是初期主动让步或推动团党相互让步;二是2017年以后否决莫迪政府多项政策,主张更多的经济和外交权力;三是2019年大选之后,国民志愿服务团主导加强了印度人民党中央、邦、大区和区县四级组织的组织部部长制度,全面掌控了印度人民党的意识形态和组织人事工作,对莫迪政府的经济和外交决策具备更大影响力。国民志愿服务团对莫迪政府对华政策的影响也呈现出相似的轨迹:2017年后,国民志愿服务团转变此前的协调风格,主动涉入印度对华经贸和中印洞朗地区对峙等问题,推动莫迪政府以强硬立场处理两国分歧;2019年以来,国民志愿服务团强势推动莫迪政府对华采取全面对抗政策,中印经贸关系等一些低政治议题被抬升到国家安全层面。国民志愿服务团还加强了主权概念下的民众动员,将其敌对思维下的一系列对华政策主张转变成莫迪政府的现实政策,中印竞合关系正被推向全面竞争和冲突状态。

In India,the Hindu nationalism organizations as represented by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh are increasingly influencing the foreign policy making,which has become a typical case on understanding how nationalism influences national behavior.The relevant mechanism can be settled by identifying the motivations and paths on how the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh can influence Indian government decisions and introducing a power position measurement framework,so as to understand the process in three stages:from the initial concessions or mutual concessions to vetoing Modi government's key policies to claim more economic and foreign policy power;and after 2019 general elections,the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh strengthened its control over the institution of general organization secretaries of the Bharatiya Janata Party at its central,paradesh,vibhag and district levels and hence dominated its ideological and organizational affairs,which helps to increase its influences on Modi government's economic and foreign policies.Its influences over Modi government's policies on China have witnessed a similar process,and after 2017 it switched from the initial co-ordinational style to active intervention into issues such as bilateral trading and border standoffs with China,so as to drive Modi government to handle bilateral differences with tougher positions.Since 2019,the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh pushed for a fullround confrontational polices vis-d-vis China and the trading relations were elevated as issues of national security concerns.It started mobilization campaigns under the theme of sovereignty and tried to turn its hostile thinking towards China into actual polices,and the competition and cooperation relationship between India and China is falling into a status of all-round competition and confrontation.