中国区域经济差距的时空演进特征与成因

THE TEM PORAL-SPATIAL EVOLUTION CHA RACTERISTICS AND CAUSES OF R EGIONAL ECONOMIC GAP IN CHINA

揭示中国区域经济差距的时空演进特征,查找影响区域经济发展的关键因素,给出推进区域经济协调发展的路径选择,是实现共同富裕目标的重要内容。本文探索性地将中国区域经济发展的政策转向、历史沿革与定量测度进行有机结合,对区域经济差距的演进特征及其来源进行了探讨;探索性地将经济发展水平、产业结构升级和城镇化水平对区域经济差距的非线性、空间辐射性影响纳入同一个研究框架进行了成因分析。研究发现:1949年新中国成立以来,中国区域经济差距在时间上整体呈现波动缩小态势,且表现出周期性特征;在空间上表现为东、中、西依次递减的分布特点,且东部与中西部经济差距是影响区域经济相对均衡的关键。进一步研究表明,当经济发展到一定水平时,推进产业结构升级,加强新型城镇化建设,可有效缩小区域经济差距;新型城镇化作用主要通过区域间的空间辐射体现,而产业结构升级作用主要通过区域内的经济发展体现。

Revealing the temporal-spatial evolution characteristics of China's regional economic disparities,identifying key factors affecting regional economic development,and providing path choices for promoting coordinated regional economic development are important elements in achieving the goal of common prosperity.This article tentatively combines the policy shift,historical evolution,and quantitative measurement of China's regional economic development,and explores the evolution characteristics and sources of regional economic disparities.Moreover,this paper explores the nonlinear and spatial radiation effects of economic development,industrial structure upgrading,and urbanization on regional economic disparities within the same research framework for causal analysis.There is a trend of fluctuation and narrowing in terms of the difference of regional economy since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949,and it has a cyclical feature.In space,the difference of regional economy is characterized by a decreasing distribution in the east,the middle,and the west,and the gap between the east region and the middle and west region is the key to affecting the relative equilibrium of the regional economy.Further research shows that when the economic development reaches a certain level,the regional economic gap can be effectively narrowed by promoting the upgrading of industrial structure and the construction of new urbanization.The effect of new urbanization is mainly reflected by the spatial radiation between regions,and the effect of industrial structure upgrading is mainly reflected through internal regional economic development.