如何认识中国面临的战略机遇和风险挑战

Understanding Strategic Opportunities, Risks and Challenges China Faces

在和平与发展的时代主题下中国处于重要战略机遇期的国际环境已经发生重大变化,中国发展进入战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多的时期。未来中国面临四类重大风险挑战:全球体系面临重大调整,世界出现分裂风险;大国博弈更加激烈,美国更加急于对中国进行打压遏制;地缘政治冲突加剧,局部危机可能演变为全局性危机;国内不平衡不充分发展问题突出,影响经济社会全面协调可持续发展的因素增多。同时,中国也具有抓住战略机遇的许多新的有利条件,包括:经济持续发展和社会长期稳定的基础更加稳固;国内市场对全球商品和要素的强大吸引力使中国有条件保持高水平对外开放态势;中国国际秩序理念和主张得到越来越多的认可;中国国家安全体系不断健全,具备维护国家安全的强大能力。抓住新的战略机遇,需要全面贯彻落实党的二十大战略部署,特别是需要做好两个统筹:统筹发展和安全,以新安全格局保障新发展格局;统筹国家利益和全人类共同利益,在构建人类命运共同体过程中实现中华民族伟大复兴。

The international environment,in which the theme of the era was peace and development and China was facing important strategic opportunities,has undergone major changes.China's development has entered a period when strategic opportunities and risks and challenges coexist,and uncertainties and unpredictable factors are also on the rise.In the future,China will face four major risks and challenges:the global system will experience major adjustments,and the world will have to cope with the risk of splitting;the gaming between major powers will become more intense,and the United States will be more aggressive in its attempt to suppress and contain China;geopolitical conflicts will intensify,and local crises may evolve into regional or even global crises to affect almost all countries;and China will face the serious problem of unbalanced and insufficient development,with factors affecting its comprehensive,coordinated and sustainable economic and social development on the rise.Meanwhile,China also has many new favorable conditions to seize strategic opportunities,including a more solid foundation for sustained economic development and long-term social stability,the strong attraction of its domestic market for global commodities and factors,which makes it possible for China to maintain a high standard of opening-up;the fact that China's concept and propositions of international order have been increasingly recognized;and the continual improvement in China's national security system that ensures it has a strong ability to maintain national security.To seize the new strategic opportunities,it is necessary for China to fully implement the strategic plans put forward at the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.In particular,it is necessary to make two overall coordination arrangements:coordination between development and security to ensure the new development paradigm is guaranteed by a new security paradigm;coordination between national interests and the common interests of all mankind,and achievement of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation in the process of building a community with a shared future for mankind.