税收分成、财政激励与地方财政可持续性——基于增值税五五分成的准自然实验

Tax sharing,fiscal incentives and local fiscal sustainability:A quasi-natural experiment based on China’s VAT sharing reform

税收分成作为调节政府间财力分配的重要手段,深刻影响着地方政府行为,不同制度安排会呈现不同的财政激励效果,对保障和提升地方财政可持续发展能力至关重要。以2016年增值税五五分成改革作为财政激励的外生冲击,构建强度双重差分模型,使用财政反应函数测量地方财政可持续性指标,实证检验增值税分成改革对地方财政可持续性的影响。研究发现,增值税分成改革主要通过激励地方政府扶持工业企业发展和开展税收竞争,对地方财政可持续性产生显著的促进效应。异质性研究表明,增值税分成改革对地方财政可持续性的促进作用在工业化水平更高、资源禀赋更好、财政自给率更高或市场壁垒更低的地区更明显。进一步研究显示,增值税分成改革总体上存在一定的“马太效应”,未能很好地发挥横向财力平衡作用。

As an important means to adjust the distribution of financial resources among governments,tax sharing has a profound impact on the behavior of local governments.Different institutional arrangements will present different financial incentive effects,which are crucial to ensuring and enhancing the sustainable development of local finance.This paper takes the 2016 VAT sharing reform as the exogenous shock of fiscal incentives,constructs anintensity differencedifference model,uses the fiscal response function to measure the local fiscal sustainability index,and empirically tests the impact of the VAT sharing reform on local fiscal sustainability.The study finds that the VAT share reform has a significant promoting effect on local fiscal sustainability mainly by encouraging local governments to support the development of industrial enterprises andcarry out tax competition.Heterogeneity studies show that the promotion of VAT share reform on local fiscal sustainability is more pronounced in regions with higher levels of industrialization,better resource endowments,higher fiscal self-sufficiency rates,or lower market barriers.Further research shows that there is a certain“Matthew effect”in the VAT share reform in general,and it fails to play a good role in balancing horizontal financial resources.