基于残差修正的ARIMA-BP组合模型在中国戊型肝炎发病预测中的应用

Application of ARIMA-BP hybrid model on incidence prediction of hepatitis E in China based on residual correction

目的:探讨基于残差修正的ARIMA-BP组合模型在中国戊型肝炎传染病流行趋势预测中的作用。方法:对2004-2017年中国戊型肝炎统计数据采用SPSS软件分别建立ARIMA和ARIMA-BP模型,将2018年1-12月戊肝数据作为对比值,对模型的预测效果进行对比分析。结果:2种模型的预测结果评价指标中,ARIMA-BP组合模型的E、ER、MAE、MSE、MAPE指标整体上均小于ARIMA模型。结论:ARIMA-BP组合模型的预测效果优于ARIMA模型,可用于我国戊型肝炎发病趋势的早期预测。

Objective:To explore the role of ARIMA-BP hybrid model based on residual correction in predicting the epidemic trend of hepatitis E infectious diseases in China.Methods:The ARIMA and ARIMA-BP models were established by SPSS software based on the statistical data of hepatitis E in China from January 2004 to December 2017.The data of hepatitis E in China from January 2018 to December 2018 were used as the comparison value to analyze the prediction effect of the model.Results:The overall index values of E,ER,MAE,MSE and MAPE of ARIMA-BP hybrid model were smaller than those of ARIMA model.Conclusions:The prediction effect of ARIMA-BP hybrid model is better than that of ARIMA model,which can be used for the early prediction of the incidence trend of hepatitis E in China.