百年未有之大变局与全球化之变动趋势

Profound changes unseen in a century and changing trends of globalization

近些年,世界“百年未有之大变局”加快演进,国际社会各种力量加速调整,世界经济复苏乏力,局部冲突动荡频发,逆全球化思潮日益抬头,人类社会面临前所未有的挑战。本文首先以马克思历史唯物主义观点,从经济、政治、文化及对外关系等多方面对百年变局的特征和内涵进行了分析,说明资本主义文明由盛转衰并逐步被新型文明所替代。这种以世纪为单位测量的体系性、系统性、全球性变化,才是影响整个世界秩序百年变局的实质。其次指出,正是在这样背景下产生了逆全球化或反全球化思潮,使贸易、投资、服务、金融及劳动力的全球化流动受到阻碍,其根源在于西方国家以资本利益导向推动的全球化,不可避免地导致其产业结构空心化、虚拟化以及加剧阶级分化和国际贸易及资本账户失衡,从而深刻揭示出逆全球化的更多特征及深层本质,并指出全球化的方向可能有所调整但其总体变动趋势是不可逆转的。最后,据此简约提示了中国特色社会主义在追求民族复兴过程中,应当继续扩大开放,促进国内外大循环,在推进自身中国式现代化战略的同时惠及全球发展的应对策略。

In recent years,the world’s“Profound changes unseen in a century”have accelerated the evolution,the adjustment of various forces in the international community has accelerated,the recovery of the world economy has been weak,local conflicts and turbulence have occurred frequently,the trend of anti-globalization thinking has been increasingly rising,and human society has faced unprecedented challenges.This paper first analyzes the characteristics and connotations of the century-old changes from the aspects of economy,politics,culture and foreign relations based on the viewpoint of Marxist historical materialism,explaining that capitalist civilization has turned from prosperity to decline and gradually replaced by a new type of civilization,and this systematic,systematicness and global change measured in centuries is the essence of the century-old changes affecting the entire world order.Secondly,it is precisely in this context that anti-globalization or anti-globalization thought has emerged,which hindered the global flow of trade,investment,services,finance and labor,and its root cause lies in the globalization promoted by Western countries guided by capital interests,which inevitably leads to the hollowing out and virtualization of its industrial structure,and aggravates class differentiation and international trade and capital account imbalances,thus profoundly revealing more characteristics and deep essence of anti-globalization.It was also noted that the direction of globalization might be adjusted,but that the overall trend of change was irreversible.Finally,it briefly suggests that socialism with Chinese characteristics should continue to expand opening up in the process of pursuing national rejuvenation,promote domestic and foreign circulation,and benefit global development while promoting its own Chinese path to modernization strategy.