乌克兰危机、通胀压力与美国释放战略石油储备

The Ukraine crisis,inflationary pressures and the release of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve by the United States

2021年下半年至2022年上半年美国拜登政府三次释放战略石油储备。第一次释放的主要动因是遏制原油价格上涨。乌克兰危机爆发后,美国接连两次宣布释放战略石油储备,各界均认为地缘政治目标成为美国释放战略石油储备的重要动因,为降低俄罗斯进行军事行动的财政能力,需进一步制裁俄罗斯的能源出口。但是,加大能源制裁力度,不仅危及欧洲的能源消费,也将进一步加剧市场对能源供应中断的担忧,从而引发美国国内的汽油价格上涨。在美国国内原油产能不能迅速增加、国际原油生产者联合行动效果不佳以及国内汽油价格不断上升的形势下,拜登政府只能继续加大释放战略石油储备的力度。本文认为,与地缘政治目标相比,美国国内因汽油价格持续上升造成的通胀压力以及由此造成的对中期选举的担忧,是拜登政府释放战略石油储备时更为紧迫和重要的推动力。美国进行战略石油储备的最终目标还是要回到应对供应短缺问题。在能源制裁背景下,中美之间能源合作的逻辑也在发生大的变化,将与更多的议题联系在一起。

From the second half of 2021 to the first half of 2022,the Biden administration in the United States released the Strategic Petroleum Reserve three times.The main motivation for the first release was to curb the rise in crude oil prices.After the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis,the United States announced the release of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve twice in succession,and all walks of life believe that geopolitical goals have become an important motive for the release of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve by the United States.To reduce Russia’s financial capacity to conduct military operations,further sanctions are needed on Russian energy exports.However,increasing energy sanctions will not only endanger energy consumption in Europe,but also further exacerbate concerns about energy supply disruptions,triggering gasoline prices in the United States.Under the situation that the domestic crude oil production capacity of the United States cannot increase rapidly,the joint action of international crude oil producers is not effective,and the domestic gasoline price is rising,the Biden administration can only continue to increase the release of strategic oil reserves.This article argues that,compared with geopolitical goals,domestic inflationary pressures in the United States due to rising gasoline prices and the resulting concerns about the midterm elections are a more urgent and important driving force for the Biden administration to release the strategic petroleum reserve.The ultimate goal of the United States in the strategic petroleum reserve is to return to dealing with supply shortages.In the context of energy sanctions,the logic of energy cooperation between China and the United States is also undergoing major changes,which will be linked to more topics.