俄乌冲突下全球粮食安全与新时期中国粮食安全政策选择

Global Food Security under the Russia-Ukraine Conflict and China’s Food Security Policy Choices in the New Era

粮食安全是治国安邦的头等大事,2022年中央农村工作会议指出“保障粮食和重要农产品稳定安全供给是建设农业强国的头等大事”。持续紧张的俄乌冲突导致全球粮食供给趋紧、需求和价格双升,粮食安全恐慌席卷全球,全球经济发展出现新的不确定性和变局。虽然短期内中国粮食市场受俄乌冲突的影响相对较小,但从长期来看,粮食进口成本攀升、市场结构性矛盾、贸易格局失衡和生物质能抢粮等,给中国粮食市场安全和农业强国发展带来新的挑战和风险。由于粮食生产具有周期性,供给和价格冲击容易诱发粮食市场系统性风险,导致政策调控失效和市场失灵。面对严峻的粮食安全局势,应统筹协调内外部关系,发挥宏观调控能力,防范和化解外部冲击的风险和威胁;以科技创新和法制保障,促进农业资源禀赋优势转化,全面增强粮食安全自主掌控力和粮食安全治理能力。

Food security is the top priority in governing the country.The 2022 Central Rural Work Conference pointed out that“ensuring the stable and safe supply of food and important agricultural products is the top priority in building a strong agricultural country”.The tense conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to a tighter global food supply,rising demand and prices,food security panic sweeping the world,and new uncertainties and changes in global economic development.Although the China’s grain market is relatively less affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in the short term.However,in the long run,there are global tensions,such as rising food import costs,structural contradictions in the market,unbalanced trade patterns,and competition for grain from biomass.This brings new challenges and risks to the security of China’s grain market and the development of a solid agricultural country.Since grain production is cyclical,supply and price shocks can quickly induce systemic risks in the grain market,leading to policy regulation failure and market failure.Facing the severe food security situation,we should coordinate internal and external relations,give full play to macro-control capabilities,and prevent and defuse the risks and threats of external shocks.With scientific and technological innovation and legal protection,promote the transformation of agricultural resource endowment advantages and comprehensively enhance the independent control of food security and the ability to govern food security.