基于蒙特卡罗模拟法的柔性交直流混联配电网概率潮流计算

Flexible AC/DC Hybrid Distribution Network Based on Monte Carlo Simulation Probabilistic Load Flow Calculation

随着高压直流输电和新能源并网技术的快速发展,电力系统运行工况愈加复杂多变。为更好评估现代电力系统的不确定性,文中研究了分布式发电中的风力发电和太阳能发电的随机出力对配电系统电压质量的影响,提出一种能够计及风光互补特性和换流站控制特性,基于蒙特卡罗模拟求解含有电压源换流器的交直流混联系统概率潮流计算方法。首先,针对换流站不同的控制方式,给出利用交替迭代法进行常规交直流潮流的计算模型。其次,建立了考虑风力发电、太阳能发电和负荷不确定性的概率潮流计算模型。最后,在修改后的IEEE-34节点系统上采用蒙特卡洛法计算节点电压、线路功率的均值和标准差。该方法能较为准确的反映新能源固有的不确定性及穿透率的影响,并有着良好的收敛性。

With the rapid development of HVDC transmission and new energy grid connection technology,the operation conditions of power system become more and more complex and changeable.In order to better evaluate the uncertainty of modern power system,this paper studies the influence of the random output of wind power generation and solar power generation on the voltage quality of distribution system,and proposes a probabilistic load flow calculation method of AC/DC hybrid system based on Monte Carlo simulation method.Firstly,according to different control modes of converter station,the alternating iteration method is used to calculate the conventional AC/DC power flow.Secondly,the probability models of wind power generation,solar power generation and load are established.Finally,the mean and standard deviation of node voltage and line power are calculated on the modified ieee34 node system.The algorithm can accurately reflect the inherent uncertainty of new energy,and has good convergence.