风险承担、创新意愿与企业转型升级的动态关系研究

Research on the Dynamic Relationship Between Risk Taking,Innovation Willingness and Firm Transformation and Upgrading

企业转型升级作为高质量发展的重要途径,其过程充满着创新性和不可预知性,这需要企业具有创新意愿,且能够承担风险。为了揭示风险承担、创新意愿与企业转型升级之间的相互作用,选取2010—2020年制造业上市公司为研究样本,构建面板数据向量自回归(PVAR)模型,检验三者之间的相互作用关系,并引入脉冲响应函数,分析三者间的相互影响程度。研究结果显示:风险承担在初期会对企业转型升级产生负向作用,但之后会持续促进转型升级;风险承担在短期内会促进创新意愿,但长期来看会抑制创新意愿;创新意愿对企业转型升级具有持续促进作用,而对风险承担具有持续抑制作用;长期来看,企业转型升级对风险承担和创新意愿均具有促进作用。上述实证研究结果表明,协调好风险承担与创新意愿的关系对促进三者良性互动具有重要意义。

Enterprise transformation and upgrading is an important way of high-quality development,its process is full of innovation,which requires enterprises to have the will to innovate.At the same time,the unpredictability of innovation and enterprise transformation and upgrading makes its behavior risky,thus requiring enterprises to be able to take risks.The existing researches focus more on the examination of one-way effects among variables but have not clarified the interaction between the three from a dynamic perspective.The purpose of this paper is to reveal the interaction between risk-taking,willingness to innovate,and enterprise transformation and upgrading.Taking the data of listed companies in the manufacturing industry from 2010 to 2020 as the sample,the paper constructs the panel data vector autoregressive(PVAR)model to examine the interaction relationship between risk-taking,willingness to innovate,and enterprise transformation and upgrading;and the degree of interaction between risk-taking,willingness to innovate,and enterprise transformation and upgrading is analyzed by further introducing impulse response functions.The findings are as follows:Risk-taking will have a negative initial effect on enterprise transformation and upgrading,but will continue to promote transformation and upgrading afterward;risk-taking promotes the willingness to innovate in the short term but inhibits willingness to innovate in the long term;willingness to innovate a continuous promoting effect on enterprise transformation and upgrading,but has a continuous inhibiting effect on risk-taking;enterprise transformation and upgrading promote both risk-taking and willingness to innovate in the long run.This indicates that while risk-taking and willingness to innovate increase over time to promote corporate transformation and upgrading,transformation and upgrading also improve corporate attitudes toward risk-taking and innovation,but excessive risk-taking will cause companies to fall into the“risk-taking trap”and inhibit their willingness to innovate in the long run,while the drive for economic rationality will inhibit corporate risk-taking,which is more detrimental to the promotion of corporate transformation and upgrading.Possible contributions of the paper include the following aspects:Firstly,this paper proposes a new method to quantify the transformation and upgrading of enterprises based on the text analysis of annual reports,which enriches the measurement indexes of transformation and upgrading of enterprises.Secondly,using the panel data of A-share manufacturing listed companies,a vector autoregressive(PVAR)model is constructed to incorporate risk-taking,willingness to innovate,and transformation and upgrading into the same systematic framework,revealing the internal logic of mutual influence among the three.Finally,the Granger causality test and impulse response analysis are conducted on the relationship and interaction between risk-taking,willingness to innovate,and transformation and upgrading,which demonstrate the dynamic interaction among different variables and break through the limitation of traditional static research.Therefore,to further improve the relationship between risk-taking,willingness to innovate,and enterprise transformation and upgrading,the following policy recommendations are proposed:Firstly,enterprises should deepen the concept of transformation and upgrading development,and activate the willingness of enterprises to innovate and take risks.Secondly,enterprises should take the initiative to coordinate the relationship between risk-taking and willingness to innovate and improve the interactive and synergistic mechanism of risk-taking,willingness to innovate,