公众危机信息传播演化模型设计及规律分析

Evolution model design and law analysis of public crisis information spreading

为研究公众间的信息传播交互行为及规律,融合多种个体决策影响因素,基于Multi-Agent方法构建公众信息传播演化模型;运用Monte Carlo方法在2个真实的社会网络中进行信息传播模拟实验;针对不同信息传播演化路径开展系统性分析。研究结果表明:负面信息优先在群体内扩散时,高度个体更容易受到影响,应尽早实施正面信息对冲,并重点向尚未接受过信息的个体传播。研究结果可为政府制定面向公众的信息传播策略、控制负面舆情扩散提供理论依据。

To studythe interactive behavior and lawof information spreading among the public,an evolution model of public information spreading was constructed based on the Multi-Agent method with integrating multiple influence factors of individual decision-making.The Monte Carlo method was used to simulate the informationspreading in two real social networks,and thesystematic analysis was carried out for different information spreadingevolution paths.The results show that the larger-degree individuals are more likely to be affected when the negative information spread in the crowdpreferentially.The positive information hedging should be implemented as soon as possible,and focus on spreading to individuals who have not received information.The research results can provide theoretical basis for the government to formulate public-oriented information spreading strategies and control the spread of negative public opinion.