南昌市生态用地景观结构与网络连通性多情景模拟

Multi Scenario Simulation of Landscape Structure and Network Connectivity of Ecological Land in Nanchang City

[目的]探究未来不同发展情境下,江西省南昌市生态用地景观结构与网络连通性变化差异,以期为该市环境保护规划与工程建设提供科学参考。[方法]基于PLUS模型对未来南昌市生态用地格局进行多情景预测,并通过景观格局指数、形态学空间格局分析(MSPA)与网络连接度分析,从数量与结构两个角度,研究不同开发强度下,城市不同区域与结构的生态用地景观结构与网络连通的差异。[结果]①不同发展情境下,生态用地破坏均主要集中于安义县、新建区境内;②草地破碎化极为严重,在任意发展情景下景观结构差异不大,而林地与水域在情景ED(经济优先)与EP(环境保护)下,景观指数差异较小,对中高强度的开发表现出较强的抗性;③不同发展情景下,生态核心区面积之间的差异高达90.36 km^(2),且多类型均匀混合结构的生态用地可以有效抑制孤岛的产生,维护区域生态安全;④相较于2020年,在各情景下,南昌市等效可能连通性指数EC(PC)下降了18.76%~23.24%,新建区、安义县境内网络连通性下降较为明显。[结论]生态保护情景(EP)发展方案可以有效地保护南昌市生态景观结构与网络安全,保障城市的可持续发展;同时在进行生态保护规划与修复工程时,优先考虑在新建区、安义县等生态景观结构脆弱区域开展,可以较好地维护南昌市生态安全。

[Objective]The changes and differences in landscape structure and network connectivity of ecological land in Nanchang City,Jiangxi Province under different development scenarios in the future in order to provide a reference for environmental protection planning and project construction in Nanchang City.[Methods]Based on the PLUS model,the future ecological land use pattern of Nanchang City was predicted for multiple scenarios.Differences in landscape structure and network connectivity of ecological land in different regions and the structures of the city under different development intensities were studied from the perspectives of quantity and structure through landscape pattern index,morphological spatial pattern analysis(MSPA),and network connectivity analysis.[Results]①Under different development scenarios,the destruction of ecological land was mainly concentrated in Anyi County and Xinjian District;②The fragmentation of grassland was very serious,and there was little difference in landscape structure under any development scenario.The difference in landscape index between forest land and water area was small under the ED and EP scenarios,showing strong resistance to medium and high intensity development;③Under different development scenarios,the difference in ecological core area was as high as 90.36 km 2.Ecological land with multiple types of uniform mixed structure can effectively suppress the generation of isolated islands and maintain regional ecological security;④Compared with 2020,under various scenarios,the equivalent possible connectivity index EC(PC)of Nanchang City decreased by 18.76%~23.24%,and the network connectivity in Xinjian District and Anyi County decreased significantly.[Conclusion]The ecological protection scenario(EP)development plan can effectively protect the ecological landscape structure and network security of Nanchang City,thereby ensuring the sustainable development of the city.At the same time,when carrying out ecological protection planning and restoration projects,priority should be given to the construction of new areas,Anyi County,and other fragile ecological landscape areas so as to better maintain the ecological security of Nanchang.