陕西省榆林市水资源承载力与协调发展

Water Resource Carrying Capacity and Coordinated Development in Yulin City of Shaanxi Province

[目的]分析陕西省榆林市水资源承载力状况,为该区水资源开发利用和协调发展提供科学参考。[方法]构建水—经济—社会—生态评价体系,利用AHP、熵权法并结合TOPSIS方法评价榆林市水资源承载力,引入耦合协调度和障碍度模型分析区域协调发展水平和承载力主要障碍因素,结合发展规划进行承载力演化分析和预测。[结果]榆林市各区县水资源承载力整体处于中等偏弱水平,榆阳区、神木市、定边县等存在发展不协调问题,人口密度大、农业用水量高是榆阳区承载力主要障碍因素,生态环境用水需求是神木市主要障碍因素,水资源本底弱、可利用量低和水土流失问题是东部区县承载力的主要障碍因素。2020年区域水资源承载力较2016年整体提升,未来经济社会发展和引水工程实施下,榆阳区、神木市、府谷县和横山县水资源承载力提升,其他区县受经济社会发展等因素影响水资源承载力进一步弱化。[结论]榆林市水资源承载力和地区协调发展存在局部脆弱和失衡问题,应进一步调整用水结构、优化水资源配置,统筹规划水—粮食安全—生态保护。

[Objective]The water resource carrying capacity of Yulin City,Shaanxi Province,was studied in order to provide a scientific reference for the development and utilization of water resources and regional coordinated development.[Methods]An evaluation system was constructed from the perspective of water-economy-society-ecology.Analytic hierarchy process,entropy,and TOPSIS methods were used to evaluate the carrying capacity of water resources in Yulin City.Coupled coordination degree and obstacle degree models were introduced to analyze the regional coordinated development level and the main obstacles to carrying capacity.Evolution analysis and prediction of carrying capacity were conducted based on development planning.[Results]The water resource carrying capacity indices of all districts and counties in Yulin City were at medium and weak levels,while the development of Yuyang District,Shenmu County,and Dingbian County were not coordinated.High population density and high agricultural water consumption were the main obstacles to increasing carrying capacity in Yuyang District.Ecological environment water demand was the main obstacle factor in Shenmu County.Weak water resources background,low availability,and soil erosion were the main obstacles limiting the carrying capacity of eastern counties.The overall regional water resource carrying capacity in 2020 has increased since 2016.Under future economic and social development and the implementation of water diversion projects,the water resource carrying capacity indices of Yuyang District,Shenmu County,Fugu County,and Hengshan County are expected to increase,while the water resource carrying capacity indices of other districts and counties are expected to weaken because of economic and social development and other factors.[Conclusion]Water resource carrying capacity and regional coordinated development in Yulin City are somewhat fragile and unbalanced.Therefore,it is necessary to further adjust the water use structure,optimize the allocation of water resources,and make coordinated plans to protect the water-food-safety-ecological resources.