计及源网不确定性的风险评估与优化调度

Risk Assessment and Optimal Dispatching Considering Source-network Uncertainties

为解决风电等新能源比例日益提升恶劣天气导致设备故障频发传统调度手段无法应对源网双侧不确定性的问题,提出一种风险评估与优化调度方法。采用K-means++/K-medoids聚类算法生成风电场景集,并建立三天气状态故障模型;通过等分散蒙特卡洛法,对风险水平进行准确评估;建立“正常-紧急-故障”多阶段协调控制模型,得到风险可控且经济合理的调度方案。算例结果表明,所提方法能够有效实现风险态势感知,并为调度决策提供重要参考。

With the increasing proportion of new energy sources such as wind power,equipment failures frequently oc⁃cur due to severe weather,and the traditional dispatching methods cannot cope with uncertainties on both the source and network sides.To solve this problem,a risk assessment and optimal dispatching method is proposed.A wind power scenario set is generated by the K-means++/K-medoids clustering algorithm,and a three-weather state fault model is es⁃tablished.The risk level of power grid is accurately evaluated by the scattered sampling Monte Carlo method.A“Nor⁃mal-Emergency-Fault”multistage coordinated control model is established to obtain a risk controllable and economical dispatching scheme.The results of a numerical example show that the proposed method can effectively perceive the risk situation and provide an important reference for dispatching decision-making.