非合作目标弹道系数解算研究及应用

Ballistic coefficient solution for non-cooperative targets and its application

弹道系数是非合作目标轨道预报的重要参数,对于数目庞大的非合作目标,利用有限的测控资源进行弹道系数的快速解算是空间目标监测的迫切需求。基于双行根数(TLE)的半长轴衰减信息,提出了一种改进的弹道系数解算算法。通过多项式平滑检测和二次判别,识别出野值、轨道机动和地磁暴3种情况;分析了构造半长轴衰减观测量的依据,比较了不同观测弧长对弹道系数解算的影响;利用天宫一号数据对所提算法解算的弹道系数进行精度评估,并将解算结果在天宫一号陨落预报中进行验证。结果表明:基于TLE解算的弹道系数稳定、准确,适用于非合作目标轨道预报。

The ballistic coefficient is an important source of error in the orbit prediction of non-cooperative targets.For a large number of non-cooperative targets,calculating quickly the ballistic coefficient with the limited measurement and control resources is an urgent need.In this paper,based on the semi-major axis attenuation information of the two line element(TLE),an improved ballistic coefficient calculation algorithm is studied.Through polynomial smooth detection and quadratic discrimination,three situations,ie.outliers,orbital maneuvers and geomagnetic storms are identified.The basis for constructing semi-major axis attenuation observations is analyzed,and the influence of different observation arc lengths on the calculation of ballistic coefficients is compared.The accuracy of the ballistic coefficients is evaluated using the data of Tiangong-1,and the ballistic coefficients are used in the prediction of Tiangong-1’s reentry.The results show that the ballistic coefficients calculated based on the TLE elements are stable and accurate,and are suitable for non-cooperative target orbit prediction.