辽宁省资源型城市发展现状、问题与转型策略研究

Study on the development status,problems and transformation strategy of resource-based cities in Liaoning Province

资源型城市转型发展是世界性难题。辽宁省作为我国城镇化与工业化起步最早的省份之一,实现资源型城市转型发展,可在全国发挥重要示范作用。以辽宁省资源型城市为研究对象,基于2005—2020年间面板数据,采用超前系数法和回归分析模型测度产业转型方向与影响因素,阐述了转型存在的问题,并剖析原因,提出了转型策略与路径。研究结果表明:辽宁省资源型城市人口减量化趋势长期存在;现有产业尚未完全打破对矿产资源的依赖;第二产业超前系数呈现先减小后增大趋势,第一产业、第三产业超前系数先增大后减小的趋势明显,说明第二产业向第一产业、第三产业调整优化的进程放缓,第一产业、第二产业以及第三产业融合趋势加重;2015—2020年,阜新市、盘锦市和抚顺市只有一个产业超前系数大于1,容易陷入产业结构单一的困境;高等教育水平、社会固定资产投资、城镇人口比例对资源型城市产业转型升级呈极显著正向效应(P<0.01),就业水平则具有显著负向影响(P<0.05);辽宁省资源型城市转型应从鼓励生育、吸引人才回流、升级资源型产业、培育循环产业、扶持新型农业和旅游业、加大地区开放力度吸引投资等方面着手,同时注重生态保护、城市结构优化和保障民生,实现城市、经济、生态、社会综合转型。

The transformation and development of resource-based cities is a worldwide problem.Liaoning Province,as one of the earliest provinces with the start of urbanization and industrialization in China,could play an important exemplary role in the whole country to realize the transformation and development of resource-based cities.Based on the panel data from 2005 to 2020,uses the lead coefficient method and regression analysis model to measure the direction and influencing factors of industrial transformation,expounds the problems of transformation,analyzes the causes,and puts forward transformation strategies and paths.The results show that the population reduction trend of resource-based cities in Liaoning Province will have been existed for a long time.Existing industries have not yet completely broken their dependence on mineral resources.The lead coefficient of the secondary industry shows a trend of first decreasing and then increasing,and the leading coefficient of the primary industry and tertiary industry first increasing and then decreasing obviously.From 2015 to 2020,only one industrial sector in Fuxin City,Panjin City and Fushun City had an advance coefficient greater than 1,which is prone to fall into the dilemma of a single industrial structure.The level of higher education,social fixed asset investment and urban population ratio have a significant positive effect on the transformation and upgrading of resource-based urban industries(P<0.01),while the employment level has a significant negative impact(P<0.05).The transformation of resource-based cities in Liaoning Province should start from encouraging fertility,attracting talents to return,upgrading resource-based industries,cultivating recycling industries,supporting new agriculture and tourism,and increasing regional opening up to attract investment,while paying attention to ecological protection,urban structure optimization and ensuring people s livelihood,so as to achieve comprehensive urban,economic,ecological and social transformation.