长三角居民PM_(2.5)暴露水平下降的健康效益评估

Assessment of the health benefits of declining PM_(2.5)levels in the Yangtze River Delta

为评估长三角地区居民PM_(2.5)降低的健康经济效益,基于时间加权PM_(2.5)暴露水平,通过综合暴露反应关系模型和支付意愿法等,分析了2011~2019年长三角地区居民PM_(2.5)暴露水平下降趋势及其健康和经济协同效益.结果表明:2011~2019年间,长三角地区的PM_(2.5)暴露浓度从45.06μg/m^(3)下降至37.39μg/m^(3),降幅为17.03%;同时归因于PM_(2.5)暴露导致的过早死亡人数从139962(95%CI:87306~192619)人下降至105461(95%CI:66306~14416)人,降幅为24.65%.从敏感性分析的年际变化看,归因于PM_(2.5)暴露导致的过早死亡在2012年政策实施后呈逐年下降趋势,表明我国各项PM_(2.5)控制政策卓有成效.产生的累积协同效益为40.55亿美元;2018年开始PM_(2.5)减排健康协同经济效益有所降低.因此在降碳的同时还需继续加强减污协同控制,以减少可归因死亡和健康经济损失.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the health and economic benefits of PM_(2.5)emission reduction for residents in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)region.Based on the time-weighted PM_(2.5)exposure levels,the decreasing trend in PM_(2.5)exposure of residents in the YRD region from 2011 to 2019,and its health and economic synergies,were analyzed using an integrated exposure-response model and the willingness-to-pay method.The results showed that,from 2011 to 2019,the PM_(2.5)exposure level in the YRD region decreased by 17.03%from 45.06μg/m^(3) to 37.39μg/m^(3).Meanwhile,the number of premature deaths attributable to PM_(2.5)exposure decreased by 24.65%from 139,962(95%confidence interval[CI]:87306~192619)to 105461(95%CI:66306~14416).According to the interannual variation-based sensitivity analysis,the number of premature deaths attributed to PM_(2.5)exposure showed a downward trend year by year after the implementation of relevant policies in 2012,with cumulative benefits of 4.055 billion dollars.These data indicate the effectiveness of various PM_(2.5)emission reduction actions in China.Since 2018,the annual economic benefits of PM_(2.5)emission reduction have decreased.Therefore,while reducing carbon emissions,it is necessary to continue to strengthen the control of pollution reduction to reduce attributable deaths and economic loss.