能源优化配置促进高质量发展与减污降碳协同研究

Study of the synergy of high-quality development and pollution abatement and carbon reduction promoted by energy optimal allocation

为研究能源要素市场化配置对高质量发展的核心指标TFP的影响及其减污降碳效应,以探讨高质量发展与减污降碳协同的可能,本文使用随机前沿生产函数,估算我国2010~2020年期间工业TFP的变化及其分解,并以完全竞争市场下的最优配置为基准估算对TFP变动的影响和其节能潜力,在此基础上估算减污降碳潜力和效应.研究发现:我国工业TFP增长乏力,但能源要素的市场化配置可促进TFP增长;能源要素市场化配置可带来显著的减污降碳效果,年均减污降碳约占实际排放的15%~20%.我国工业可通过持续推进能源要素市场化进程,以完善的制度体系和合理的能源价格体系,促进高质量发展与减污降碳协同.

To study the impact of the market-oriented allocation of energy on TFP,which is the core indicator of high-quality development(HQD),and its effect of pollution abatement and carbon reduction(PACR)to explore the possibility of the synergy of HQD and PACR,a stochastic frontier production function was utilized to estimate the change and decomposition of China's industrial TFP from 2010 to 2020,and the impact on the change of TFP and its energy saving potential based on the optimal allocation in a fully competitive market were estimated.Based on the estimation,the potential and effect of PACR were calculated.The study found that:China's industrial TFP growth was sluggish,but the market-oriented allocation of energy could promote TFP growth;Market-oriented allocation of energy could bring significant potential and effect of PACR.The annual reduction was about 15%~20%of the actual emissions.By continuously promoting energy marketization,with a sound institutional system and a reasonable energy price system,synergy of HQD and PACR could be achieved.