我国基本医疗保险基金收支联动关系及趋势预测研究

Research on Revenue and Expenditure Linkage and Trend Prediction of Basic Medical Insurance Fund in China

目的:分析我国基本医疗保险基金收支之间的联动关系,预测其短期变动趋势。方法:构建误差修正模型方程了解基本医疗保险基金收支长期效应和短期效应,运用ARIMA模型预测二者的短期变化趋势。结果:基本医疗保险基金收支存在长期协整关系,收入是支出的格兰杰因,两者表现为正向变动关系,该研究结束后的5个月基本医疗保险收支均有所下降。结论:基本医疗保险收入的变化可以用来解释支出的变动情况,二者存在长期正向联动关系,ARIMA模型预测效果较好。

Objective:To analyze the linkage between revenue and expenditure of basic medical insurance fund in China and forecast its short-term trend.Methods:The error correction model equation is constructed to understand the long-term and short-term effects of basic medical insurance fund revenue and expenditure,and the ARIMA model is used to predict the short-term trend.Results:There is a long-term cointegration relationship between income and expenditure of the basic medical insurance fund.Income is the Granger cause of expenditure,showing a positive relationship.The income and expenditure of basic medical insurance will decline in the next five months.Conclusion:The change of basic medical insurance income can be used to explain the change of expenditure.T there is a long-term positive linkage between changes of the income and the expenditure.ARIMA model has a good prediction effect.