儿童照料对女性二孩生育意愿的影响——基于东北三省生育状况抽样调查的分析

The Influence of Child Care on Female Second Child Fertility Intention——Analysis of Fertility Status Based on the Sampling Survey in Three Northeast Provinces

中国自20世纪80年代实施计划生育政策以来生育水平迅速下降,人口结构逐渐发生改变,潜在劳动力不足和人口老龄化加剧逐渐成为经济社会发展面临的重大问题。东北地区是落实计划生育政策最好的地区,人口长期处于超低生育水平,在全国率先进入人口负增长阶段。当前,东北地区经济发展困难和人口问题并行,人口结构性问题突出,老龄化问题加剧。同时,国家两孩政策、三孩政策的实施并没有显著提升东北三省人口的生育意愿,一个孩子依然是大多数家庭的实际子女数量。为探究东北三省低生育率的根本原因,本文根据2017年东北三省生育状况抽样调查数据,利用二元Logit回归模型分析儿童照料形式以及社会照料预期可负担成本对于女性二孩生育意愿的影响,根据社会照料的预期可负担费用与实际费用的差值对比分析其对于城市和农村女性二孩生育意愿的影响。研究发现生育二孩的决策并不是由女性主导,而是受到家庭的综合影响。相较于家庭照料,社会照料显著降低了受访女性的二孩生育意愿,社会照料预期可负担费用占家庭总收入的比重越高,女性的二孩生育意愿越低。另一方面,当社会照料的预期可负担费用低于实际费用时,女性的生育意愿会被显著抑制。这是由于东北地区的家庭收入普遍较低,社会照料的费用加重了家庭的经济负担,从而降低其生育意愿。以上结论显示东北地区已经进入了成本约束型低生育发展阶段,建议加大东北地区农村和城市0-3岁婴幼儿早托机构以及普惠性幼儿园的投入和建设。

Since implementation of family planning policy in the 1980s,the fertility level of China has declined rapidly,the population structure has gradually changed,besides,the economic and social development is facing the major problems as shortage of potential labor force and the aging population.The family planning policy was thoroughly implemented in the Northeast region,their population has been at an ultra-low level for a long time and has entered the stage of negative growth.At present,the difficulty of economic development in Northeast China is accompanied by the problem of population.Aging population and the problem of population structure are intensified.At the same time,the implementation of the twochild policy has not improved fertility intentions in those three Northeast provinces,and one child is still the actual number of children in the average family.In order to explore the root cause of the low fertility rate in the three Northeast provinces,this paper uses the sample survey data of fertility status in the three provinces of Northeast China in 2017,binary logit regression model is used to analyze the impact of childcare forms and expected affordable cost of social care on woman’s second child fertility intention.According to the difference between expected affordable cost and actual cost of social care,the impact on woman’s second child fertility desire in urban and rural households is compared and analyzed.The study found that the decision to have a second child is not dominated by women,but influenced by the whole family.Compared with family care,social care significantly reduced the willingness of women to have a second child.The higher the expected affordable cost of social care accounts for the total family income,the lower the women’s intention to have a second child.On the other hand,when the expected affordable cost of social care is lower than the actual cost,woman’s fertility will be significantly suppressed.This is due to the generally low income of families in the Northeast,and the cost of social care has increased the financial burden on families,therefore hindering their desire to have second children.The above conclusions show that Northeast China has entered the stage of low fertility development with cost constraints.It is suggested to increase the investment and construction of early childhood care institutions and inclusive kindergartens in both rural and urban areas of Northeast China.