优化MGM(1,n)模型在边坡沉降预测中的应用研究

Application of optimized MGM(1,n)model in slope settlement prediction

为更好地预测边坡沉降,考虑边坡整体变化趋势,采用多变量的优化MGM(1,n)模型,对边坡相关的各监测点的沉降变形进行了预测。该研究先以平均相对残差为指标筛选初值,引入背景值系数重构背景值计算公式;再据此建立改进的双值MGM(1,n)优化模型;最后,以中山西环高速公路A段的边坡工程为实例,分别建立传统MGM(1,n)模型、GM(1,1)模型和优化MGM(1,n)模型,并对所测数据进行建模预测和比较分析。研究结果表明:在3种优化模型中,优化MGM(1,n)模型的预测精度最高。该模型在边坡沉降预测方面具有一定的应用前景,可为类似工程和研究提供参考。

In order to better solve the problem of slope subsidence prediction,this paper focuses on the overall change trend of slope,and uses multivariate optimization MGM(1,n)model to realize the prediction of sedimentation deformation of the monitoring points affecting the interconnected effects of slope.The MGM(1,n)optimization model of improved double value is established by filtering the initial value by means of the average relative residual index and reconstructing the background value calculation formula by introducing the background value coefficient.Based on the measured data of the A-section slope of the Central Shanxi Expressway,the optimized MGM(1,n)model,the traditional MGM(1,n)model and the GM(1,1)model were established,and the measured data were modeled and predicted.The results show that optimizing the MGM(1,n)model has higher prediction accuracy and some application prospects in slope subsidence prediction,which can provide reference for future research.