乡村振兴与新型城镇化耦合协调动态演进研究——以新疆生产建设兵团为例

Dynamic evolution of coupling coordination between rural revitalization and new urbanization:Taking Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps as an example

研究基于兵团2008—2018年面板数据,建立乡村振兴与新型城镇化的评价体系及耦合模型,分析两系统发展水平及耦合协调关系。结果表明:(1)各师乡村振兴子系统大多处于增长趋势,但是存在较大的波动性,发展不平稳;新型城镇化子系统处于稳步增长阶段,且增速较快。(2)各师乡村振兴-新型城镇化系统耦合协调度均值皆呈现波动上升态势,截至2018年,大部分师耦合协调度达到中级协调及以上水平,各师之间分布不均。随着经济社会发展,濒临失调逐步由新型城镇化发展滞后型演变为乡村振兴滞后型。各师之间的演进差异依然显著,要达到各师均衡发展仍需要一段时间。

Based on the panel data of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps from 2008—2018,the evaluation system and coupling model of rural revitalization and new urbanization are established to analyze the development level and coupling coordination relationship between the two systems.The results show that:(1)Most of the rural revitalization subsystems of each division are in a growth trend,but there is a large fluctuation and the development is not stable;The new urbanization subsystem is in a steady growth stage and the growth rate is faster.(2)The average value of coupling coordination of rural revitalization-new urbanization system in all divisions showed a fluctuating upward trend,and as of 2018,the coupling coordination of most divisions and cities reached the intermediate coordination level or above,with uneven distribution among divisions.With the development of economy and society,it is on the verge of imbalance and gradually evolves from a lagging type of new urbanization development to a lagging type of rural revitalization.The evolution differences between different divisions are still significant,and it will take some time to reach balanced development of the divisions.