新疆塔里木河流域主要农作物干旱脆弱性研究

Research on Drought Vulnerability of Main Crops in Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang

该文旨在揭示2000—2019年塔里木河流域42个县市农作物干旱脆弱性演化过程及特征。基于暴露水平、敏感性程度、适应能力构建农作物干旱脆弱性评价模型对塔里木河流域小麦、玉米进行分析。研究结果表明,研究期内塔里木河流域喀什地区、和田地区、克州的农作物干旱脆弱性大于阿克苏地区、巴州的农作物干旱脆弱性,2000—2009年敏感性事件频发,2010—2019年韧性事件频发。塔里木河流域小麦、玉米干旱脆弱性事件主要集中在阿克苏地区及巴州,小麦、玉米韧性事件主要分布于喀什地区,且玉米干旱脆弱性高于小麦干旱脆弱性。研究期内塔里木河流域SPEI指数与脆弱性指数分布呈负相关,即作物生产需水量与降水量不匹配。该文聚焦塔里木河流域农业干旱脆弱性,提出有关提升塔里木河流域内农业韧性的建议及措施。

The aim of this paper is to reveal the process and characteristics of agricultural drought vulnerability evolution in 42 counties and cities in the Tarim River Basin from 2000-2019.A crop drought vulnerability evaluation model was constructed to analyze wheat and corn in the Tarim River basin based on exposure level,sensitivity degree and adaptive capacity.Crop drought vulnerability in Kashgar,Hotan and Kechu regions of Tarim River Basin greater than Aksu region and Bazhou during the study period,with frequent sensitivity events from 2000-2009 and frequent resilience events from 2010-2019.The drought vulnerability events of wheat and corn in the Rim River Basin are mainly concentrated in the Aksu and Bayingolin regions,while the resilience events of wheat and corn are mainly distributed in the Kashgar region,and the drought vulnerability of corn is higher than that of wheat.The SPEI index of the Tarim River basin was negatively correlated with the distribution of vulnerability index during the study period,i.e.the water demand for crop production did not match the precipitation.This paper focuses on the drought vulnerability of agriculture in the Tarim River Basin and proposes recommendations and measures to enhance agricultural resilience in the Tarim River basin.