人口老龄化、技术进步与低碳发展的关系研究——以中部地区为例

Research on the Relationship between Aging Population,Technological Advance and Low-carbon Development:A Case Study of the Central Region

中部地区在全国区域发展格局中占有举足轻重的战略地位。基于中部六省84个地级市2010—2019年的面板数据,运用空间面板模型分析了人口老龄化、技术进步与低碳发展的关系,得出以下结论:人口老龄化程度以及碳排放量在空间上均呈空间自相关性;人口老龄化与碳排放量之间呈现显著的倒“U”型关系,并且中部地区人口老龄化率在6.5%左右时,碳排放量达到峰值水平;技术进步可以显著地抑制老年人口增多带来的碳排放增量。据此提出推动技术进步、加快产业结构升级、优化人口年龄结构等政策建议,以期促进中部地区低碳减排的高质量发展。

The central region occupies an important strategic position in the national regional development pattern.Based on the panel data of 84 prefecture-level cities in six provinces of central China from 2010 to 2019,this paper analyzes the relationship between aging population,technological progress and low-carbon development by using Spatial Dubin Model(SDM).It is found that:the distributions of aging population and carbon emissions are spatially autocorrelated;the impact of aging population on carbon emissions shows a significant inverted“U”shaped relation,and carbon emissions reach a peak level when the aging rate in the central region is about 6.5%;technological progress can significantly curb the increase of carbon emissions caused by the increase of the aging population.Accordingly,relevant policy suggestions,such as promoting technological progress,speed up efforts to upgrade industrial structure,optimizing the age structure of the population,are put forward to promote a high-quality development with low-carbon and reduced emission in the central region.