考虑绿证价格与发电量双重随机的风电投资策略研究

Research on Investment Strategy of Wind Power Considering Double Randomness of Green Certificate Price and Power Generation

针对火力发电减排投资的碳交易市场,实物期权理论被用于研究碳价波动对投资策略的影响。而在可再生能源发电项目中,绿证价格与风力发电量具有双重不确定性,本文据此构建风电投资项目实物期权模型,研究绿证价格与发电量波动等对风电投资阈值与投资时点的影响。研究表明:(1)绿证价格与发电量波动增加了投资阈值与投资等待时间,积极推动绿证跨区域交易、禁止二次交易、配置储能装置能够抑制波动,降低风电投资阈值门槛;(2)绿证期望收益率适中更为有利;(3)运营周期延长及税收优惠力度增加均能降低投资阈值与投资等待时间,起到激励风电项目投资的效果。基于此,应限制绿证投机性交易、实施绿证价格下限政策、延长运营周期与税收优惠并举。

The real option theory is used to study the impact of carbon price fluctuations on investment strategies in the carbon trading market for thermal power generation emission reduction investment.In renewable energy power generation projects,there is a dual uncertainty between the price of green certificates and the amount of wind power generated.This article constructs a real option model for wind power investment projects based on this,and studies the effects of fluctuations in green card prices and power generation on wind power investment thresholds and investment timing.Research has shown that:(1)fluctuations in green certificate prices and power generation increase investment thresholds and waiting times,actively promoting cross regional trading of green certificates,prohibiting secondary trading,and configuring energy storage devices can suppress fluctuations and lower the threshold for wind power investment;(2)A moderate expected return on green certificates is more advantageous;(3)The extension of operating cycles and the increase in tax incentives can both reduce investment thresholds and waiting times,thereby stimulating investment in wind power projects.Based on this,we should restrict green card speculative transactions,implement green card Price floor policy,and extend the operation cycle and tax incentives simultaneously.