人口老龄化对经济增长的影响路径与有限挤出理论演绎

The Impact Mechanism of Population Aging on Economic Growth and the Theory of Limited Crowding Out

中国现代化是人口规模巨大的现代化,同时又与人口老龄化重合,由此面临着经济发展路径的优化选择。本文依据人口老龄化对经济增长影响路径,提出积极应对人口老龄化的有限挤出理论框架。理论分析发现:(1)人口老龄化对经济增长的影响,通过影响经济增长要素的数量和结构,进而影响经济增长。生产是人口老龄化对经济增长要素挤出的起点;经济运行过程“生产-交换-分配-消费”是人口老龄化对经济增长影响的线路;以生产为起点展开的生产要素如劳动力、资本、技术、管理、数据等,在交换、分配、消费等经济运行环节呈现出来,构成人口老龄化对经济增长影响的“点、线、面”立体结构。(2)人口老龄化对经济增长要素的挤出,呈现出“点、线、面”整体联动,老年人口比重上升联动劳动力人口比重下降,在生产上有对劳动力的挤出,进而联动生产要素的点和经济运行的线。(3)人口老龄化对经济增长的影响呈现有限挤出效应、加速效应、适度效应、协同效应。

The modernization of China involves a huge population that is undergoing the process of aging,making it essential to select an appropriate approach to economic development.This paper proposes a theoretical framework for analyzing the active response to population aging,based on the impact mechanism of population aging on economic growth.Theoretical analysis indicates that:(1)Population aging affects economic growth by influencing the number and structure of economic growth factors.Production is the starting point for the aging population to crowd out economic growth factors.Population aging impacts economic growth along the process of"production-exchangedistribution-consumption".The impact of production factors such as labor,capital,technology,management,and data is also evident in economic activities such as exchange,distribution,and consumption,which constitute a three-dimensional structure of the impact of population aging on economic growth.(2)The crowding out effect of population aging on the factors of economic growth is interconnected.The increase in the share of the elderly population is associated with a decrease in the share of the labor force,resulting in a crowding out effect on the labor force in production,which is also related to production factors and economic activities.(3)The impact of population aging on economic growth exhibits limited crowding out effect,accelerating effect,moderate effect,and synergistic effect.Finally,this paper proposes some policy recommendations.