具有双时滞的媒体效应对西藏地区包虫病控制的影响

Impact of media effects with dual delays on control of echinococcosis in Tibet

通过对包虫病传播机制以及西藏地区包虫病流行状况的研究,建立了一类含有媒体效应的多时滞包虫病传播模型,研究了模型的稳定性、一致持续性以及产生Hopf分岔的条件,并结合西藏地区的数据进行数值模拟,验证了媒体效应在疾病控制中起到的重要作用以及时滞大小对模型稳定性的影响,最后针对防控策略给出了合理的建议。

Based on the study of the transmission mechanism of echinococcosis and the epidemic situation of echinococcosis in Tibet,a multiple time-delays echinococcosis transmission model with media effect is established.The stability of the model,uniform persistence and the conditions of Hopf bifurcation are studied and numerical simulation is performed on the data from Tibet,to verify the significance of the media effect on disease control and the influence of time lag on the stability of the model.Finally,reasonable suggestions are given for the prevention and control.