多情景模拟下的新疆生态系统服务价值评估

Valuation of Ecosystem Service Value with Multi-scenario Simulation in Xinjiang

研究多情景下的新疆土地利用变化及生态系统服务价值(ESV),探讨区域内最优的土地利用分布格局,对干旱区的可持续发展与土地利用规划具有重要意义。该研究耦合多目标优化和斑块生成土地利用模拟(PLUS)模型对自然发展情景、经济发展情景、生态优先情景、可持续发展情景4种情景下的土地利用需求及空间分布进行预测模拟,采用价值当量法计算新疆未来情景下的生态系统服务价值。结果表明:(1)2000-2020年,新疆土地利用类型以荒地为主,土地利用变化主要表现为耕地的增加和荒地的减少。2035年4种情景下的土地利用变化不同,空间模拟结果整体上扩张趋势一致,局部变化明显。(2)利用PLUS模型对新疆的土地利用变化模拟效果较好,Kappa系数均值达到0.8991,总体精度均值达到0.9548,可以有效模拟新疆2035年的土地利用空间格局。(3)2035年自然发展、经济发展、生态优先、可持续发展情景下的ESV分别为18717.25、17816.36、19221.52、18134.45亿元。加强草地、水域、林地、湿地等生态用地的保护,有利于提高ESV价值总量。可持续发展情景可作为兼顾生态保护和经济发展双重因素的优化情景,参与新疆未来的规划发展。

The purpose of the paper is to study the change of the land utilization in Xinjiang and the relevant ecosystem service value(ESV)under multi-scenario in order to explore the optimal land-use distribution pattern and provide a reference for sustainable development of this area.Coupled multi-objective optimization and patch generation land-use simulation(PLUS)model were apply to the prediction and simulation of the land-use demand and spatial distribution under four scenarios:natural development,economic development,ecological priority,and sustainable development.Findings of the study show that during the period of 2000 to 2020,the pattern of land-use in Xinjiang was dominated by barren land,and the changes of land utilization mainly featured the increases of cropland and the decreases of barren land,while in 2035 under the above-mentioned four scenarios,the land-use change would differ,and the spatial simulation results would on the whole show a trend of consistent expansion,with the local change being notable.Jusing the PLUS model to simulate land-use changes has proved to be rather effective(with the Kappa coefficient reaching 0.8991 and the overall accuracy reaching 0.9548)in simulating the change of land utilization in 2035.Under the scenarios of ND,ED,EP,SP the ESV in 2035 would respectively amount to 18717.25,17816.36,19221.52,and 18134.45 hundred million yuan.Summarily,enhancing the conservation of ecological lands,e.g.grassland,waters,woodland and wetland,is conducive to the growth of total ESV value;and the sustainable development scenario could be used as an optimization scenario taking into consideration both ecological protection and economic development to engage in the future planning and development of Xinjiang.