“扩中”与“减贫”视角下的新生代农民分化影响因素研究

Research on the Influencing Factors of the Differentiation of the New Generation of Farmers from the Perspective of“Expanding the Middle-Income Group”and“Reducing Poverty”

为进一步辨别“扩中”和“减贫”路径,形塑与建构未来农民分化图景,研究以新生代农民为研究对象,根据2016中国劳动力动态调查数据(CLDS),利用广义多层线性模型(HGLM)跨层次研究新生代农民分化影响因素.研究结果表明:个体层面来说,个人人力资本投入如健康、教育、周工作时间、基本医疗保险与养老保险、流动性与非农生产等预示着较高的进入中等收入群体(相对于低收入群体)的发生比,社会支持系统如稳定的婚姻关系、父辈非农化代际传承与人际支持等则显著增加了进入高收入群体(相对于中等收入群体)的发生比宏观层次上,城镇化率和地区社会保障支出对新生代农民分化有显著影响.还就性别的分化效应、离土与离乡、不同的分化路径、社会保障的“减贫”与“扩中”效应、城镇化率-教育的跨层次交互效应等问题进行了进一步分析与讨论.研究的现实意义在于指出,在“扩中”与“减贫”的背景下,政府应继续推进城镇化建设,带动农村居民收入增长;提高地区社会保障支出,强化社会保障的“减贫”和“扩中”效应;多手段综合提高新生代农民社会公平感;关爱女性,确保女性享有平等的受教育机会和获得更多的人际支持.

In order to further identify the path of“expanding the middle-income group”and“reducing poverty”,and to shape and construct the future picture of farmers'differentiation,this study takes the new generation of farmers as the research object to study the influencing factors of the new generation of farmers'differentiation by using the hierarchical generalized linear model(HGLM)and the 2016 China labor force dynamic survey data(CLDs).The results show that at the individual level,personal human capital investments,such as health,education,weekly working hours,basic medical insurance and basic pension insurance,liquidity and non-agricultural production,all indicate a higher incidence of entering the middle-income group(compared to the low-income group),while social support system,such as stable marriage,non-agricultural intergenerational inheritance of parents and interpersonal support,etc significantly increased the incidence of entering the high-income group(compared to the middle-income group).At the macro level,urbanization rate and regional social security expenditure have significant impacts on the differentiation of new generation of farmers.The paper also makes further analysis and discussion on the gender differentiation effect,leaving the land and the countryside,different differentiation paths,the“expanding the middle-income group”and“reducing poverty”effects of social security,and the cross-level interaction effect of urbanization rate and education.The practical significance of this study is that under the background of“expanding the middle-income group”and“poverty reduction”,the government should continue to promote the urbanization construction,in order to drive the income growth of rural residents;improve the regional social security expenditure,and strengthen the“expanding the middle-income group”and“reducing poverty”of social security;comprehensively improve the sense of social equity of the new generation by multiple means;care for women,and ensure that women have equal access to education and get more interpersonal support.