粤港澳大湾区城市内部竞争与协同发展——基于竞争力指数的PVAR模型研究

The Internal Competition and Coordinated Development in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area--A PVAR Model Analysis Based on Competitiveness Index

当前粤港澳大湾区城市产业协同发展成为大势所趋.论文采用前沿距离法计算2000-2019年各城市内部不同产业领域的实际指标数值与同期所有城市中的极限值之间的差异度来估算其竞争力得分,并运用面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型分析各产业领域间的发展关系.结果表明:整体上城市内部邮电运输产业发展对金融业具有促进作用,而后者又将进一步促进工业发展,但科技创新却对金融发展具有阻碍作用.区分珠三角和港澳样本的异质性研究进一步指明,科技创新对工业和邮电运输产业的影响在港澳地区体现为促进作用,但在珠三角地区体现为阻碍作用,这在一定程度上反映出港澳市场环境体制在促进创新成果落地和产业发展方面的优势,以及珠三角地区创新成果质量有待进一步提高的客观现实.基于相关研究结论,认为促进粤港澳大湾区经济长远发展,除了要强化城市间的协同联系,也应进一步提高城市内部各领域同向发展的稳定性.

The coordinated development of advantageous industries among cities in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has become a general trend.With Distance to Frontier method,the competitive indexes of each industry inside the cities are calculated and compared.Panel Vector Auto-regressive(PVAR)model is further used to analyze the effectiveness of collaborative development within the bay area cities.The results show that on the whole,the development of post and telecommunication industry in the city can promote the financial industry,and the latter will further promote the manufacturing industry,but technological innovation can hinder the financial development.The study also find heterogeneous features between Pearl River Delta cities and Hong Kong and Macao,which points out that the impact of technological innovation on industry and post and Telecommunication industry is reflected as a promotion in Hong Kong and Macao,but an obstacle in the Pearl River Delta cities.Thus reflects that the advantages of Hong Kong and Macao's market environment in promoting the landing of innovation achievements,as well as the objective reality that the quality of innovation achievements in the Pearl River delta needs to be further improved.Based on the research conclusions,we believe that in order to promote the long-term economic development of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,we should not only focus on the collaborative relationship between cities,but also improve industrial synergy within the city.