基于制度赡养率的退休年龄调整机制

Retirement Age Adjustment Mechanism Based on System Dependency Ratio

本文在企业职工基本养老保险年度收支平衡目标下,建立了“盯紧”平衡制度赡养率的退休年龄调整模型。在养老金替代率和征缴率各取3档形成的9种情景下,考察“男女同时”和“先女后男”两种延迟退休方案下2021—2050年退休年龄的动态调整过程。研究发现:建立的退休年龄调整模型可以使退休年龄随基金支付压力动态调整,实现基金年度收支平衡,其中“男女同时”延迟退休能更早实现基金收支平衡,但预测期末男性平衡退休年龄过高;在现行养老金替代率和征缴率水平下,到2050年平衡退休年龄最高会达到72岁多,应通过提高征缴率、合理设定替代率来降低平衡退休年龄。敏感性分析显示,提高城镇就业比率和城镇职工参保率对降低平衡退休年龄的作用大于总和生育率。若养老金替代率设为50%、征缴率能提高到75%,则“先女后男”每年提高6个月退休年龄是较为理想的方案,到2050年平衡退休年龄为66岁零3个月。本研究可为延迟退休政策的制定与养老保险可持续发展提供理论依据。

Aiming to achieve a balance between annual revenues and expenditures of the basic old-age insurance for enterprise employees,we establish a retirement age adjustment model pegged to balanced system dependency ratio.We examine the dynamic adjustment process of retirement age from 2021 to 2050 of two delayed retirement schemes,the“simultaneous”and“female-first”schemes under the nine scenarios formed by selecting three brackets of pension replacement rate and three brackets of collection rate.We find that the retirement age adjustment model can dynamically adjust the retirement age according to the pressure on pension fund payment,thereby achieving a balance between annual revenues and expenditures of the pension fund.We observe that“simultaneous”delayed retirement can balance the revenues and expenditures of the pension fund earlier,albeit predicting an excessively high balanced retirement age for males at the end of the period.Under the current pension replacement rate and collection rate,the balanced retirement age will reach more than 72 years old by 2050.So we should increase the collection rate and set a reasonable replacement rate to lower the balanced retirement age.We also learn from the sensitivity analysis that boosting the urban employment rate and the pension insurance participation rate of urban employees can play a bigger role in lowering the balanced retirement age than the total fertility rate.If we set the pension replacement rate at 50%and hike the collection rate to 75%,then the“female-first”scheme will be more reasonable as it will raise the retirement age by six months per year and increase the balanced retirement age to 66 years and three months by 2050.We hope that the findings of our research can serve as a theoretical foundation for the formulation of delayed retirement policies and the sustainable development of pension insurance.