企业金融化利润追逐动机影响业绩预告质量实证研究

The Empirical Research on the Impact of Enterprise Financialization Profit Pursuit Motivation on the Quality of Earnings Forecast

企业金融化利润追逐动机因导致企业业绩波动、会计稳健性和双重代理成本而降低企业业绩预告质量。笔者基于投资替代理论,以2007—2020年中国沪深A股非金融类上市公司研究样本的有效数据,运用Logit回归方法和OLS回归方法,实证检验了企业金融化利润追逐动机对其业绩预告质量的影响。检验结果证实:企业金融化利润追逐动机因导致企业业绩波动加剧、会计稳健性降低、双重代理成本增加而降低了业绩预告质量;进一步检验企业业绩预告信息自愿披露与强制披露的结果证实:被强制披露业绩预告信息企业中,企业金融化利润追逐动机对业绩预告精确度和准确度的降低,显著高于自愿披露业绩预告信息企业。本研究通过实证检验企业金融化与其业绩预告质量之间的关系,揭示了企业金融化利润追逐动机影响其业绩预告质量的机制,从公司信息披露方面拓展了投资替代理论在企业金融化领域的应用,丰富了有关企业金融化和企业业绩预告方面的现有文献,研究结论有助于为企业科学投资决策以及实际管理提供理论依据。

Enterprise financialization profit pursuit motivation reduces the quality of earnings forecast,and in this process,corporate performance fluctuation,accounting conservatism and double agency cost acts as a mediator.Based on investment substitution theory,this paper using the valid data of non-financial listed companies in China s Shanghai and Shenzhen A-shares from 2007 to 2020 as the sample,and employing the empirical approaches of Logit regression and OLS regression,this paper empirically tests the impact of enterprise financialization profit pursuit motivation on the quality of earnings forecast.The results show that enterprise financialization profit pursuit motivation reduces the quality of earnings forecast by increasing the corporate performance fluctuation,reducing accounting conservatism,and increasing double agency cost.Further examination shows,compared with the company of voluntary disclosure,it is more significant that enterprise financialization profit pursuit motivation reduces forecast precisely and increases forecast bias in the company of mandatory disclosure.The study empirically tests the relationship between enterprise financialization and the quality of earnings forecast,and reveals the impact mechanism of enterprise financialization pursuit motivation on the quality of earnings forecast.It expands the application of investment substitution theory in the field of enterprise financialization in terms of corporate information disclosure,and enriches the existing literature on enterprise financialization and enterprise earnings forecast.This findings help to provide theoretical basis for enterprises’scientific investment decisions and business management.