采伐政策风险对人工林最优轮伐期的影响

The Impact of Harvesting Policy Risk on Optimal Rotation of Plantations

在我国现行的森林采伐限额管理制度下,人工林的采伐策略面临着限额指标编制和申请过程带来的风险。文章基于弗斯特曼模型,选取江西省和浙江省的杉木人工林为研究对象,依据林木的生长模型,结合我国林木采伐管理政策的现状,实证分析采伐政策风险和失去林权风险两个因素对人工林最优轮伐期的影响,以期为优化森林经营管理和完善我国采伐政策提供理论依据。研究结果表明:(1)杉木人工林的最优轮伐期随立地条件改善、采伐政策风险增大、失去林权风险增大而缩短。(2)在采伐政策风险增大的情况下,优等林地和中等林地经营杉木人工林的最优轮伐期分别缩短了5.90%和4.60%;林地期望收益值分别减少了33.10%和67.40%。(3)在失去林权风险下,优等林地和中等林地经营杉木人工林的最优轮伐期比采伐政策风险的最大值时减少了13.20%和5.40%,林地期望收益值减少了78.80%和221.40%。基于研究结果,提出政策启示:(1)适当放宽森林采伐限额指标,提高采伐指标分配的灵活度;(2)建立有效的监督和处罚机制,减少寻租等行为的发生;(3)提高林权的稳定性,降低林权被收回的风险。

Under the current forest harvesting quota management system in China,the harvesting strategy of plantations faces risks brought about by the quota preparation and application process.Based on the Faustmann model,this paper selected Chinese fir plantation in Jiangxi Province and Zhejiang Province as the research object,and according to the growth model of the tree,combined with the current situation of the harvesting policy in China,empirically analyzed the impact of the harvesting policy risk and loss of forest tenure risk on the optimal rotation of plantation in order to provide theoretical basis for optimizing forest management and improving logging policy in China.The results showed that:(1)The optimal rotation of Chinese fir plantation decreased with the improvement of site conditions,the increase of the harvesting policy risk,and the increase of loss of forest tenure risk.(2)With the increase of the risk of the harvesting policy,the optimal rotation of Chinese fir plantation in superior forest and medium forest decreased by 5.90%and 4.60%,respectively.The expected yield of forest land decreased by 33.10%and 67.40%,respectively.(3)Under the risk of loss of forest tenure,the optimal rotation of Chinese fir plantations in superior forests and middle forests decreased by 13.20%and 5.40%compared with the maximum value of the harvesting policy risk,and the expected yield of forest land decreased by 78.80%and 221.40%.Based on the research results,the paper put forward policy suggestions:(1)Appropriately relax the cutting quota index and improve the flexibility of cutting index allocation.(2)Establish an effective upervision and punishment mechanism to reduce the occurrence of rent-seekings and other behaviors.(3)Promote the stability of forest tenure and reduce the risk of forest tenure being recovered.