农业生态经济系统协调度及时空演化研究——以安徽省为例

STUDY ON THE COORDINATION DEGREE AND SPATIAL-TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF AGRICULTURAL ECO-ECONOMIC SYSTEM——A CASE STUDY OF ANHUI PROVINCE

[目的]定量分析安徽省区域农业生态经济系统发展水平和耦合态势,并结合区域时空分布特点分析两系统相互影响模式。[方法]文章通过农业生态经济系统评价指标体系和耦合协调模型,从全省和区域两个层面分析安徽省农业生态经济系统的时空演变规律和发展态势。[结果](1)2005—2020年全省农业生态经济系统综合指数整体呈逐年递增趋势,其中,农业经济系统表现为逐年增加,农业生态系统表现为先降低,后升高;一级指标中仅生态压力指数表现为下降趋势,生态条件、产业发展、产业效益3指标均表现为增加趋势;耦合度由中度耦合向极度耦合发展,协调度从低度协调向中度协调过渡。协调类型则从农业经济系统极度滞后向农业生态系统严重滞后转变。(2)2005—2020年各地级市农业生态系统综合指数年际变化较小,且区域差异小;农业经济系统年际变化大,且区域差异明显;区域耦合类型,2010年以前大部分区域处于农业经济滞后阶段,2011—2020年全区域农业经济滞后类型相对减少,滞后程度减低,农业生态滞后类型开始加重;其中,经济滞后类型主要集中在安徽西部的六安市、阜阳市、淮北市和亳州市,生态滞后类型主要集中在安徽南部和东部,包括黄山市、宣城市、芜湖市、马鞍山市、宿州市和合肥市等区域。[结论]近15年来安徽省农业经济的快速发展主要体现以环境破坏为代价的粗放型发展模式,且区域间发展不平衡;前期农业生态经济系统发展水平滞后于农业生态,明显限制了两系统的耦合协调发展,随着农业经济快速发展,耦合度和协调度增加,但环境压力增大,长期发展可能造成两系统脱耦;全省耦合协调类型空间呈现西部农业经济滞后,东部生态滞后的分布态势,并随时间变化不同,各区域应因地制宜促进两系统良性协调发展。

This research aims to quantitatively analyze of the development level and coupling situation of regional agricultural eco-economic system in Anhui province,and explore the interaction mode of the two systems in combination with different regional spatial backgrounds.Through the evaluation index system and coupling coordination model of agricultural eco-economic system,this study summarized the spatio-temporal evolution law and development trend of Anhui agricultural eco-economic system from the provincial and regional levels.The results were indicated as follows.(1)The comprehensive index of agricultural eco-economic system in the whole province increased year by year from 2005 to 2020,and among them,the agricultural economic system increased year by year,and the agricultural eco-economic system decreased first and then increased.In the first level indicators,only the ecological pressure index showed a downward trend,while the ecological conditions,industrial development and industrial benefits showed an increasing trend.The coupling degree developed from medium coupling to extreme coupling,and the coordination degree transited from low coordination to medium coordination.The coordination type changed from the extreme lag of agricultural economic system to the serious lag of agricultural ecosystem.(2)The comprehensive index of agricultural ecosystem in cities at different levels had a small interannual changes and regional differences from 2005 to 2020,the agricultural economic system had great interannual changes and obvious regional differences.And from 2011 to 2020,the types of agricultural economic lag in the whole region were relatively reduced,the degree of lag was reduced,and the types of agricultural ecological lag began to increase,among then,the types of economic lag were mainly concentrated in Lu'an city,Fuyang city,Huaibei city and Bozhou city in the west of Anhui,the types of agricultural ecological lag were mainly concentrated in the south and east of Anhui,including Huangshan city,Xuancheng city,Wuhu city,Ma'anshan city,Suzhou city,Hefei city and other regions.Overall,in recent 15 years,the rapid development of agricultural economy in Anhui province mainly depends on the extensive development model at the cost of environmental damage,and the development among regions is unbalanced.In the early stage,the development level of agricultural ecological economy system lags behind that of agricultural ecology,which obviously restricts the coupling and coordinated development of the two systems.With the rapid development of agricultural economy,the degree of coupling and coordination increases,but the environmental pressure increases,and long-term development may cause decoupling of the two systems.The coupling and coordination type space of the whole province presents the distribution trend of agricultural economy lagging behind in the west and ecology lagging behind in the east,and changes differently with time.So,each region should adjust different measures to coordinate development of the two systems according to local conditions.