重置周期:温州工业经济运行形势分析与预测(2022—2023)

Reset Cycle:Analysis and Forecast of Industrial Economic Operation Situation in Wenzhou(2022–2023)

2022年温州工业经济运行延续疫情冲击下的恢复态势。综合分析工业经济运行相关先行指标、同步指标、滞后指标的进度数据,结果表明:工业经济运行呈“L”形筑底形态,生产节奏处于探底阶段;库存周期的超预期调整为后续库存回补积蓄了向上反弹动能;“疫情附加成本”持续释放是企业盈利承压的主因;弱需求和低价格“量价”双降压制工业资本开支增长;工业企业技术改造投资趋势背离或预示产能更新迭代与产业新动能投放不足。趋势分析表明:库存见底回升有望成为2023年穿越工业经济“L”形周期底部的突破动力;疫情快速过峰后企业利润水平将得到持续改善;2023年工业投资将稳步回暖,全年工业投资增速总体呈现前陡后缓的态势。

In 2022,the operation of Wenzhou’s industrial economy continued to maintain the recovery trend under the impact of the COVID-19.Through comprehensive analysis of the progress data of the relevant leading indicators,synchronization indicators,and lagging indicators of industrial economic operation,a series of conclusions have been revealed,namely,the operation of the industrial economy was in the bottoming form of‘‘L’’shape,and the rhythm of production was in the bottoming stage;the unexpected adjustment of the inventory cycle accumulated upward rebound pvtential energy for subsequent inventory replenishment;the continuous release of‘‘additional costs of the epidemic’’was the dominant factor in corporate profitability and stress resistance;weak demand and low price both fell,thereby suppressing the growth of industrial capital expenditure;the deviation in the investment trend of technological transformation of industrial enterprises may indicate the iteration of production capacity renewal and the lack of investment in new industrial kinetic energy.This trend analysis has shown as follows:the bottoming out of inventory is expected to be a breakthrough driving force to cross the bottom of the‘‘L’’cycle of the industrial economy in 2023;the level of corporate profits is bound to continue to improve after the epidemic prompt peaks;industrial investment will rise steadily,and the growth rate of industrial investment throughout the year will generally show a steep and slow trend in 2023.