农业生产性基础设施对劳动力外流的影响研究——基于江西省“百村千户”调查数据

Influence of Agricultural Productive Infrastructure on Labor Outflow:Survey Based on Data of“Hundreds of Villages and Thousands of Households”in Jiangxi Province

利用2018年江西省“百村千户”数据,运用Tobit模型分析农业生产性基础设施对劳动力外流的影响,并构建中介效应模型进一步探究农业生产性基础设施影响劳动力外流的可能路径。结果表明:农业生产性基础设施促进了劳动力的外流,其中产田改造设施、灌溉设施、道路设施对劳动力产生替代效应,水利设施产生互补效应,电网设施对劳动力流动无显著影响;在异质性影响方面,农业生产性公共设施显著促进了高素质和适龄劳动力外流,对低素质和老年人的外流无显著影响;农户自有机械在农业生产性基础设施对劳动力外流影响中发挥着中介效应。据此,建议加大对农村农业生产性基础设施的投资,将农户自有机械作为促进劳动力外流的重要抓手,加大农机购置补贴。

Based on the data of the project“Hundreds of Villages and Thousands of Households”of Jiangxi province collected in 2018,the Tobit model was used to analyze the influence of agricultural productive infrastructure on labor outflow and build an intermediary effect model to further explore the possible paths of agricultural productive infrastructure affecting labor outflow.The results shows that agricultural productive infrastructure promotes labor outflow,in which field reconstruction facilities,irrigation facilities and road facilities have a substitution effect on labor,and water conservancy facilities have a complementary effect and electric facilities have no significant impact on flow of labor.In terms of heterogeneity,agricultural productive infrastructure,while significantly promoting the outflow of high-quality and working-age labor,has no significant effect on the outflow of low-quality and elderly people.Farmers’own machinery plays an intermediary role in the influence of productive agricultural infrastructure on outflow of labor.Therefore,it is necessary to increase the investment in productive agricultural infrastructure,take whether farmers have machinery as an important way to promote labor outflow,and increase subsidies for the purchase of agricultural machinery.