碳中和战略下我国交通运输行业碳减排策略研究

Research on Carbon Emission Reduction Strategy of China’s Transportation Industry under Carbon Neutrality Strategy

以我国交通运输行业为研究对象,采用“自下而上”法和“自上而下”法分别测算2050年我国交通运输行业四种主要情景可实现的减碳水平。研究显示:运输结构调整优化、电动卡车规模化和能源结构优化均可有效降低2050年我国交通运输行业碳排放,运输结构优化调整的边际减排效果最佳且呈现先快后慢的趋势,而电动卡车规模化对碳减排贡献率呈现先慢后快的趋势。因此,需要不断优化运输结构,加快能源结构优化步伐,推进电动卡车技术应用和推动公路电气化,以实现碳中和战略下我国交通运输行业碳减排目标。

Taking China’s transportation industry as the research object,this article uses respectively the“bottom-up”and“top-down”methods to estimate the carbon emission level of China’s transportation industry in four scenarios in 2050.The results show that transportation structure adjustment and optimization,large-scale electric trucks,and energy structure optimization can effectively reduce carbon emissions of China’s transportation industry by 2050.It is found that transportation structure adjustment and optimization shows the best marginal emission reduction effect,with a rapid reduction effect at first and a gradual slow down trend,whereas the contribution rate of large-scale electric trucks to carbon emission reduction shows a slow effect at first and then gradually increasing trend.Therefore,to achieve the carbon emission reduction targets of China’s transport industry under the carbon neutrality strategy,China needs to accelerate the pace of energy structure optimization,continuously optimize the transportation structure,promote the application of electric truck technology and popularize road electrification.