沈阳桃仙机场2021年趋势预报分析和短临预报技巧

Analysis of Trend Forecast and Short-impending Forecast Skills of Shenyang Taoxian International Airport in 2021

着陆性趋势预报是机场预报最有效的短临预报方式,该文通过详细分析2021年沈阳桃仙机场趋势预报准确率,将趋势预报从风、能见度、天气现象和云这4个方面进行详细分类,以寻找预报技巧,提高沈阳机场短临预报准确性,提供更高质的航空气象保障服务。沈阳机场预报成功率较高的要素包括中等以上降水的解除;能见度上升期的能见度预报,尤其是降雨引起的低能见度;雾、霾、烟的能见度预报;雷暴的解除预报。风、低云及垂直能见度、非常见天气现象的预报在沈阳机场变化较复杂,需要连续跟踪关注。

Landing trend forecast is the most effective short-impending forecast method of airport forecast.Through a detailed analysis of the accuracy of trend forecast of Shenyang Taoxian International Airport in 2021,this paper classifies trend forecast in detail from four aspects:wind,visibility,weather phenomenon and cloud,in order to find forecasting skills,improve the accuracy of short-impending forecast of airports in Shenyang,and provide higher-quality aviation meteorological support services.The factors with a high success rate of forecasting of airports in Shenyang include the lifting of above moderate precipitation,visibility forecast during the visibility rising period,especially the low visibility caused by rainfall,visibility forecast of fog,haze and smoke,lifting forecast of thunderstorms.The forecast of wind,low cloud,vertical visibility and unusual weather phenomena in Shenyang's airports is complicated and requires continuous tracking and attention.