事故经历与家庭消费:“及时行乐”还是“数米而炊”?

Accident Experience and Family Consumption:"Carpe Diem"or"Keep Saving"?

文章利用中国家庭金融调查数据,实证检验事故经历对家庭消费的影响。结果表明,事故经历会使家庭消费不降反升,“及时行乐”效应为此提供了可能的解释。事故经历对家庭享受和发展型消费的促进作用尤为显著,但对生存型消费的影响则不明显。机制分析表明,事故经历提升了家庭的风险厌恶程度,提高了来自亲友的转移性收入,最终实现消费增加;但结果并未印证预防性储蓄理论的猜想。进一步研究表明,随着家庭消费水平的提升,事故经历对消费的促进效应呈现先升后降的倒U型趋势;且这种效应会随着时间推移而衰减;不同类型的事故经历对消费也具有差异化影响;对于数字化水平较高、户主较年轻的家庭而言,事故经历的“及时行乐”效应更强。研究为解释家庭消费行为提供了新的视角和经验证据,能为巩固脱贫攻坚成果、维护家庭经济福利提供有益参考。

Using China household finance survey data,this paper empirically tests the impact of accident experience on household consumption.The results show that the accident experience will make the household consumption increase instead of decrease,and the"carpe diem"effect provides a possible explanation.Accident experience is particularly significant in promoting enjoyment and development consumption,but the change of survival consumption is not obvious.The mechanism analysis shows that the accident experience enhances the family's risk aversion,improves the transfer income from relatives and friends,and finally increases consumption,but it does not confirm the guess of the precautionary saving theory.Further research shows that with the improvement of household consumption level,the promotion effect of accident experiences on consumption presents an inverted U-shaped trend.This promotion effect will decay with time.Different types of accident experiences also have different effects on consumption,and the effect of"carpe diem"is stronger for families with higher digital level and younger heads of households.This paper provides a new perspective and empirical evidence for studying and explaining family consumption behavior,and provides a useful reference for consolidating the achievements of poverty alleviation and safeguarding family economic welfare.